Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN]

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH MY WINDOWS CRASHED AND MY WHOLE POST GOT DELETED. GOD.

No patience now. Not gonna rewrite it all.

1. I said that alca was safer to lynch because there was actually a REASON to vote for her at that time. While drandahl just sort of posted and got like 2 votes on him out of nowhere.

2. Pretty sure Blaire got NK'ed because there was a veteran player among the mafia. Cthulu dying reinforces this.

@Sammiya's theory about me and Rasei being maf. That's a reasonable theory but every NK so far has suggested a veteran mafia player so I think it's safer to go with that.

3. About the votes on D1..not much. I do think Lux's second vote basically put drandahl up to die, but she explained herself quite well. Alca's final vote on drandahl is more suspicious imo.

4. I suspect Alca, Sammiya, and Lux. In that order. I will most likely vote for alca if pressured to. Lux is third because she's been trying really hard to generate discussion and that seems very town. Her overall behavior is very town, but she knows the game well so there's always the chance that she's just a very convincing mafia. So she stays on the list, just barely.

For the record, I suspect Rasei as well and I think I've made that clear by voting for her FIRST (and it was not a random vote either). But I believe we have better candidates to focus on. Also Rasei tends to contradict herself at times so not sure whether I can get an accurate read on her. (Um I make a lot of mistakes too so no offense of course. ;w;)

@Sammiya Thanks! I'm doing well now and it was worth all the trouble getting here cause London is great. ^^

EDIT: Oooookay gonna read the ninja posts. I'm always late to the party.

alcasync wrote:Although... now I'm curious. Why does everyone seem to believe so strongly that one of the stronger players must be mafia? Is it because of the NK targets or something else? I already posted my thoughts above but if anyone wants me to explain more then please ask me questions. ;v;

Umm...well...it's just what looks the most obvious? Blaire was killed first, Cthulu then suggested the idea of an experienced mafia and suggested some pairs, then he gets killed off next. :C

It's a WIFOM (first time using this term. Am I doing it right?) and when that happens I usually just go with the most straight-forward idea. Overthinking it will just bring up countless new ideas and scenarios and we have to focus on one thing right now since we can't afford to mislynch. ;w;

I don't see how Cthuluhoop dying enforces that there's a veteran player on the mafia. At the very least, I don't see how it makes me or even Luxaria look more suspicious. If me or Luxaria were mafia and Sammiya was town, then it would make much more sense to leave Cthuluhoop alive because he seemed very willing to push a lynch on Sammiya, and then whoever mafia is could just sit back and let him lead that lynch. So either Sammiya is mafia and wanted to avoid Cthuluhoop pushing a lynch on her, or else Sammiya is town and Cthuluhoop was a random target, because it actually hurts mafia to kill him if Sammiya is town.

AliceofOz wrote:Lux is third because she's been trying really hard to generate discussion and that seems very town.

All of us have been trying to generate discussion. What is it about Luxaria's posts that make you think she's more town than anyone else in the thread?

alcasync wrote:Although... now I'm curious. Why does everyone seem to believe so strongly that one of the stronger players must be mafia? Is it because of the NK targets or something else? I already posted my thoughts above but if anyone wants me to explain more then please ask me questions. ;v;

I don't think that's too unreasonable at this point.

Rasei is going to say she's town, and so that means mafia has to have at least one of Lux, Sam, alca.

Alice is going to say she's town, and so that means mafia has to have at least one of Lux, Sam, alca.

Sammiya suspects me the most, I think, but also said Rasei/Alice might be trying to frame everyone.

You, yourself, have said you think Rasei/Alice to be a very unlikely pairing, and you're going to say you're town, so that means mafia has to have at least one of Lux and Sam.

And you know that I've previously considered the idea of the meaning of the NKs and that I'm willing to vote for Rasei or Sammiya, and that I suspect Alice the least.

By process of elimination, almost everyone has concluded that there is almost certainly at least one of either myself, Sammiya, or yourself on mafia.

Also, still analyzing.

Well, I've already explained why I don't think Rasei/Alice is a likely pairing, but I would like to know why you or Sammiya would think so. What is your reasoning for why Rasei/Alice aren't mafia trying to frame the stronger players? (I'm not saying I think it's likely, I still stand by my last post, but I don't want this phase to go by without us at least all having good reasons for dropping the Rasei/Alice pair.) ;v; I guess you already said that you think Alice is town so I'm mostly interested in hearing Sammiya's thoughts on this.

Um okay I'm going to bed soon so don't expect any good posts from me at this point on. I will post a vote on mobile or something.

I'll let Lux post her big analysis before voting. And ideally some posts from Rasei and Sammiya?

@Alca Well she's kind of forcing everyone to speak up a bit..harder than everyone else. I'm sure everyone can agree ;w; (Lux I didn't mean that as a bad thing! I think it's good! Even if you are mafia it's umm..still something that town needs. Ah?) And I don't think EVERYONE was generating discussion as much as others.

I swear to god I'm only a little bit biased okay? TwT (that was a joke.)

I'm working on a large post, I accidently fell asleep when I got home.

In addition to finding Alice the least suspicious, it comes down to something you said: If Alice and Rasei were mafia, does it seem likely that they'd kill Mr. Alice N0 and hope the veterans eat each other alive? Mr. Alice has a reputation for incriminating herself, and what's more it adds another non-veteran to pad their ranks and focus the discussion around 2-3 veterans after killing one off.

Also:

Rasei/AliceofOz
- Rasei voted for drandahl after Alice voted for alcasync.
- Rasei tells Alice the goal was to make a tie vote (despite not being part of the tie just yet).
- Rasei makes no mention of Alice otherwise.
- Alice voted for Rasei after finding her agreeing to Cthulu's post so quickly to be scummy. States it's a weak vote with no other feasible options.
- Alice makes no mention of Rasei otherwise.
- Alice finds Sammiya's theory of Alice/Rasei to be reasonable, but every NK suggests a veteran so it's safer to focus on one of them.

Here's from my pairings sheet.

There were large time spans between both of their original votes and then the ones on alca and drandahl. Alice's* first vote was on Rasei and found it suspicious that she'd so immediately vote for me following someone else suggesting veterans being suspect. Which is kind of amusing in hindsight, since now much of Alice's reads are centered around Cthulu's suggestion--though they may have just been naturally developed reads according to Cthulu's death and his suspicions, and also process of elimination from her perspective. Not unreasonable.

The biggest coincidence is that Alice woke up and voted for alca, and then Rasei switched to drandahl about 20 minutes later.

So, let's consider hypotheticals.

Alice and Rasei are mafia. They kill Blaire N0 to frame a veteran (aka, everyone that isn't them and possibly drandahl). Cthuluhoop notices this situation, and Rasei reinforces it by voting for me. Alice does not follow up, but if they were a pair it makes sense for her to avoid that. Alice then votes for Rasei stating that Rasei was quick to jump on Cthuluhoop's thoughts. Which does seem suspicious, in a way. If you're Rasei and you're mafia and you kill Blaire N0, your goal is probably to implicate a veteran. So her latching onto Cthulu is her going, "yes please follow our plan" from a mafia perspective. Alice finding Rasei suspicious, if they were a pair, could be to make them both appear innocent.

Other than this, neither have really communicated.

Most recently, Alice said that it's more likely for a veteran to be on mafia, so she'd rather focus on that. If Rasei and Alice were mafia, they've engineered the discussion around the three remaining vets. Killing Cthuluhoop also makes sense because it frames Sammiya while also leaving alca and Lux, who are most suspicious as per thread consensus.

So there's a case for them being mafia. Now for the main point to consider: If you're Alice and Rasei, do you leave alcasync, Luxaria, Cthuluhoop, and Sammiya all up against you?

Your entire plan hedges on getting town to lynch one of those players. The players that have a strong track record of ferreting out mafia, no less. It could be a master stroke of a plan and both of them have engineered this whole thing and avoiding implicating themselves, in which case, well-done. You two are doing really well.

But the last point is that they split votes D1. I agree it makes sense if the vote is between two town, so as to avoid possibly incriminating. If they wanted to split, it makes sense to wait until they know who is voting for which, and that would explain why Rasei did not vote until after Alice did.

If Rasei had doubled up on alcasync, that means it would've been 5 in favor of her. That would've set off alarms to anyone.

Before I ramble and WIFOM into space, here's my final verdict:

They could very well be paired together. There's a chance. Alice does seem the most town to me, but she might have done exceptionally well to mask her scum. However, while I find their pairing a little unlikely given the NKs, let's say that they are mafia. From my perspective, alca/Alice are safe to ignore for this phase (unless something comes up). I wanted Rasei or Sammiya. If Alice/Rasei are a pairing, lynching Rasei does diminish their numbers and we live for one final phase.

* Edit: Wrote Alca instead of Alice. Double "Al" starting names... ;w;

It's only one and a half hours until rollover and we're going to need to start voting soon. Umm I kind of want to wait for Rasei's post but I stand by that I will be very very likely be voting for Sammiya or Alice today.

@Luxaria: Thank you for giving my question thought! ;v; I wasn't expecting you to reply so thoroughly.

I think given that this might be a make-or-break phase for mafia, mafia will avoid voting for their teammate (even if they're planning on switching, it's still dangerous to focus everyone's attention on your teammate when there are other options).

For this reason, I think it's unlikely that Sammiya/Luxaria and Sammiya/myself are pairs since Lux and I seem willing to vote for Sammiya and Sammiya seems willing to vote for us. But the reason I bring this up is because Alice and Rasei aren't really considering each other as vote candidates at all and I already explained the reasons why it doesn't really make sense to have me/Luxaria as a pair due to Luxaria almost getting me killed if it weren't for Rasei's intervention, which means that at least one of Rasei or Alice must be mafia, if not both, if we follow this logic. So while I stand by that I'm not inclined to believe that they're both mafia, I don't think we should give them a pass entirely.

Alcasync, can I ask why you're only considering voting for Sammiya or Alice?

In your last post you say that you think it's unlikely that Sammiya/Luxaria and Sammiya/Alcasync are pairs. And obviously, you and I aren't going to think alca/Lux are a pair. Alca/Alice isn't a pair.

For you, this leaves:
Luxaria/Alice
Alice/Rasei
Rasei/Sammiya
Sammiya/Alice.
Lux/Rasei

But you say it's likely mafia will avoid voting for their teammate. You point out Lux and Alca are willing to vote for Sammiya, and Alice is willing to vote for Sammiya, too. Sammiya seems willing to vote for Lux and Alca. I have also expressed willingness to vote for Rasei, which you acknowledged in your post of reads. By this logic...

Luxaria/Alice
Alice/Rasei
Rasei/Sammiya

Why is it that you'd rather lynch either Sammiya or Alice over either Alice or Rasei? You go on to state:

alcasync wrote:which means that at least one of Rasei or Alice must be mafia, if not both, if we follow this logic

If at least one might be mafia, then what's the reservation on voting for Rasei? Is it solely because you think Lux/Alice is a thing?

I actually believe Alice straight out said that she was going to vote for me at this point? If Alice is mafia with you or Sammiya as a teammmate, then by saying, "I'm most suspicious of alca but I'm also suspicious of Sammiya and Luxaria," it lets her say she suspects her teammates without ever having to actually vote them.

I also believe that Sammiya/Rasei is a pair so at this point it's just numbers for me. Like I said, I believe the mafia pair is one of:

Sammiya/Alice
Sammiya/Rasei
Luxaria/Alice

And both Sammiya and Alice are in there twice so I would be most willing to vote for one of them.

Edit: To reiterate in case it wasn't clear, though I said this before. I'm not against voting for you or Rasei! I still think it's very possible that either of you are mafia. I would just rather lynch someone with a 2/3 chance of being mafia rather than a 1/3, from my perspective.

AliceofOz wrote: I suspect Alca, Sammiya, and Lux. In that order. I will most likely vote for alca if pressured to.

If merely including potential mafia partners gives her a pass on them from suspicions, then why are you using that logic to clear off everyone else?

alcasync wrote:For this reason, I think it's unlikely that Sammiya/Luxaria and Sammiya/myself are pairs since Lux and I seem willing to vote for Sammiya and Sammiya seems willing to vote for us.

If you're using "Alice is just throwing in Sammiya and Lux to help clear herself", but then ignore it for everyone else, isn't it inconsistent? Or do you have some other reasoning for trusting those statements, but not Alice's statement?

Also, what happened to your theory of Rasei/Alice?

alcasync wrote:which means that at least one of Rasei or Alice must be mafia, if not both, if we follow this logic. So while I stand by that I'm not inclined to believe that they're both mafia, I don't think we should give them a pass entirely.

Rasei was the one the only one other than myself to vote away from you after Alice voted on you. You keep mentioning Rasei as being possible (particularly with Alice), and all points of logic can be used against her, too, but then when it comes to shove you just won't consider her a worthy candidate for a lynch. Why is that? Because her saving you and you seemingly being unwilling to vote for her looks really, really suspicious.

Okay. vote: Rasei

I never said I wasn't willing to vote her and I can easily unvote. I was the first to point out that Rasei saved me on D1 and have mentioned it multiple times since then. If I were mafia with her do you think I would draw so much attention to it?

Am I seriously doing first vote? This is ridiculous ffs I'm so tired I need to sleep.

WHY IS NOBODY VOTING. THIS IS JUST SILLY I DIDN'T WANT TO REFRESH AND SEE NO VOTES.

Vote : alcasync

Rasei's throught process for Vanilla
Why did Blaire die?

Mr. Alice wrote:I have been waiting for this for [vanilla] ever. * - *

Edit: I'm gonna get killed N0 just for saying that, I know it.

Did Blaire have someway of knowing that he was truely going to die that night? Why did Mafia kill him, unless they wanted to mess with Blaire and his chance to play this vanilla game? If they really did kill him through a RNG number like Alcasync suggested or they did it to cause chaos?

Timestamps on D1 Voting:
⦁ [6:50 pm] Rasei votes Cthuluhoop.
⦁ [7:15 pm] Cthuluhoop votes Alcasync.
⦁ [7:40 pm] Rasei votes Luxaria.
⦁ [8:16 pm] Alcasync votes Drandahl.
⦁ [8:33 pm] Drandahl votes AliceofOz.
⦁ [8:39 pm] Alcasync votes Sammiya.
⦁ [10:14 pm] Sammiya votes Drandahl.
⦁ [11:53 pm] AliceofOz votes Rasei. :(
⦁ [12:18 am] Luxaira votes Luxaria. (Hey it's scummy to vote against oneself... I got scolded when I did that.)
⦁ [12:18 am] Luxaira unvotes.
⦁ [12:18 am] Luxaira votes Drandahl.
⦁ [3:49 am] Drandahl unvotes.
⦁ [3:49 am] Drandahl votes Drandahl.
⦁ [3:49 am] Drandahl unvotes.
⦁ [3:49 am] Drandahl votes Alcasync.
⦁ [4:26 am] AliceofOz unvotes.
⦁ [4:26 am] AliceofOz votes AliceofOz.
⦁

AliceofOz does it nine more times:

⦁ [4:26 am] AliceofOz unvotes.
⦁ [4:26 am] AliceofOz votes Tiki the Troll.
⦁ [6:21 am] AliceofOz votes Tiki the Troll many, many times.
⦁ [2:48 pm] Luxaria votes Alcasync.
⦁ [4:23 pm] AliceofOz votes Alcasync.
⦁ [4:41 pm] Rasei unvotes.
⦁ [4:41 pm] Rasei votes Drandehl.
⦁ [4:49 pm] Luxaria votes Drandehl.
⦁ [5:56 pm] Alcasync votes Drandehl.



First Mention of Ties and feelings on them:

Cthuluhoop wrote:What happens if there is a tie Tiki?

If mafia was somehow influence by the post, then can we blame on it all on Cthuluhoop?

I felt like it was better that if there was a tie, then we would have a better chance of getting a mafia during the first day.

Lux's Questions:

Luxaria wrote: Why did you vote for me despite later indicating both alca and myself as talkative theorists and stating you didn't want to lynch Alca (presumably for that reason)? Also, why did you never encourage the tie with your vote/words until it was 4 votes on Alca?

To tell you the truth, I wasn't paying that much attention to the game when I voted for Dran. I thought that you still had your vote on him, and D&D was about to start so I wanted to change my vote. I asked questions about the tie before I decided to vote in it.

Luxaria wrote: You indicate the two of us as being better theorists, but your earlier vote on me contradicts this in intent. Why the inconsistency? I'm completely fine with the reason being "Luxaria is more expendable than alcasync", because alcasync is the goddess of town, but it just seems funny after you specifically mention us out of the list of four.

I'm sorry... I have an easier time following Alcasync's posts. I haven't played many games with Cthulu, so I'm not sure how good his theories are. Through I do like him. As for Sammy... because I cannot trust that personal feelings wouldn't get in the way of always believing in her voting.

Luxaira wrote:Next, there was a 22 hour gap between your vote on me and your vote on drandahl. During this time you were receptive to the idea of a tie and asked about the nature of it. There was a 2 hour span between when I answered your post (which happened 12 minutes prior), putting alca at 3 votes, and your comment to Alice and vote swap onto drandahl to encourage a tie. I understand you may have been busy, or perhaps wanted the go-ahead from someone else, but why didn't you move your vote sooner or encouraged anyone to double-up on me for tie purposes?

I kept getting distracted with something shiny, which happens a lot when I go to the game store I play D&D at. At the time that I voted Drandeh, I didn't pay enough attention that I realized that you switched your vote from Dran. I wanted to encourage the tie, but there wasn't a lot of time to convince people to follow my voting, 'cesptally since I didn't have a lot of activity prior to me switching the vote. I didn't realize that Alpaca would break the tie, by switching to Dran either.

1)  I want to support threory 2 for Blaire. My theory on Cthulu is he could have said something to make mafia wanted to kill him.

3) I want to say my pairings that I think are most likely are Lux/Alice, Alpaca/Alice, Sammy/Alice or Lux/Sammy. I don't like thinking that the goddess of town is mafia. It would make me want to cry. I feel like that a lot of people are suggesting Alice as a main member of the mafia. I will vote either Sam or Alice this phase.

Lux wrote: But earlier you stated you were surprised to see alcasync and myself both alive on D1. It's D2 and we're still both alive. What do you think about it?

I think it's a clever way that the mafia is setting us to watch y'all fight for the death, and reinforces the idea that one of you is mafia.

Why RNGing NKs is a bad idea:

I personally believe RNGing night kills is a bad idea. It's always better to cut the head off of the snake (town) then letting them float around telling everyone their thoeries. Blaire is pretty bad at protecting herself, so I wouldn't kill her off. It would have been Alpaca if I was mafia.
In the game I was last mafia, my first pick was Alpaca... through it was to turn her into a vampire instead of killing her. The game before that, Panpan really, really wanted to kill of Kiyoko for rping reasons.

Cutting it close so well...:

Cthuluhoop wrote:Luxaria/ Aliceofoz
Sammiya: Rasei.
Aliceofoz:Sammiya.

Besides my pairing with Sammiya, either of these are possible in my mind. Through I would like to think Sammy is innocent, I could vote for her. As for other people pairings, I can see why some people think what they do. I know that people could say I was the one that save Alcasync, I didn't mean to.  I just wanted more of a chance to get a townsperson.
I don't think that Lux/Alpaca are a mafia couple anymore, which is a good thing because we would be doom if this is so.


Also, I was really close on just voting No Lynch on D1, like I always did, but the post that Cthulu did on mafia stats on D2 convince me to try and vote out a mafia member.

I want to vote AliceofOz, because my most strongest feelings she is mafia with either Lux or Sam. I'm going to go ahead and post this through I'm not done yet.