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Cry Wolf » Archives » Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN]

Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN]

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drandahl
high seraph
AliceofOz
Cthulhuhoop
Aistaraina
Kiyoko
alcasync
nautilus
Luxaria
Mr. Alice
Tiki The Troll
15 posters

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Tiki The Troll

Tiki The Troll

Vanilla Tally


  • Everyone: 0



Terrible Movie Ghost vs. Avian
Kiyoko vs. that jerkface who killed her in b&b
Mr. Ghostalice vs. T3tsuya also



Last edited by Tiki The Troll on Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:44 pm; edited 2 times in total

Cthulhuhoop

Cthulhuhoop

vote: avian.

Tiki The Troll

Tiki The Troll

Hmm, I wonder who the next will be...

Just another phase or two, and we'll get to throw a regular Vanilla Ghost party! : D
Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN] - Page 7 Ghost+cupcakes3

Rasei

Rasei

I also feel like that maybe that one of our usual theorists maybe be mafia. We cannot afford a mislynch today.

My ideas of mafia pairings:

AliceofOz/Alcasync
AliceofOz/Lux
AliceofOz/Sammy
AliceofOz/Rasei [Which is impossible, since I'm town]
Alcasync/Lux [which would make us doooooommmmm]
Alcasync/Sammy
Alcasync/Rasei [Which is impossible, since I'm town]
Lux/Sammy
Lux/Rasei [Which is impossible, since I'm town]
Sammy/Rasei [Which is impossible, since I'm town]

I'm going to get home early tomorrow, so I'm going wait until tomorrow to vote.

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

I really think Cthulumints is onto something there, but since Avian isn't on this forum, we should vote the person closest to Avian in personality and general level of smarminess. Even if this person is not mafia, I think if they died, it would be an overall win for town regardless.

vote: T3tsuya

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

Mr. Alice

Mr. Alice

I second that last notion Vote: T3tsuya

AliceofOz

AliceofOz

I'M SORRY.

I moved to England and I got like 2 hours of sleep yesterday before my flight and the day was filled with unpacking and getting used to my new home.

So about me voting for alca during D1. I honestly wasn't reading everything properly at that time because I got up for my flight and just skimmed through the thread quickly. It was like 2 AM. You don't have to believe me but this is the truth. ;w; And tbh I felt like alca was a safer person to vote for than drandahl so there's my reasoning.

The NK on Blaire was weird, so I agree that mafia probably has a veteran playing. But this seemed too obvious for me AT THE TIME, so I didn't think too much of it (since mafia could've done that to draw suspicion towards the experienced players). I..kind of think Cthulu was right though, since he died later afterwards.

So..Cthulu must've said something that forced the mafia to target him? He's been pretty active in this thread from what I see and he's a sensible target for mafia. I'm pretty sure one of these is mafia: alca, Lux bby, or Sammiya. Only cause you guys are more experienced and...yeah. ;w; (Don't hate me waifu pls) I'd like to hear more from Sammiya since they're on my list and hasn't really posted.

I also don't think Lux going for the tie is suspicious. I think she's..done that before I'm not sure. Not something I'd suspect her over. She's only in my list because she's talented at mafia.

And yes me and Lux support each other throughout every game. It's just what we do.

Mmm Cthulu was suspecting Sammiya, me and Lux. I' know I'm town and those two are on my list so I think..I can be pretty sure about this? I'm not going to vote yet because it's a dangerous situation for town and we need to discuss a bit more about who to vote for. I'm going to head out soon but I'll try to keep up with my shiny new 4G.

Looking at everyone's readings..it looks like people suspect me, Lux, and alca the most. About mafia partners, I really don't know. It could be anyone. I guess people will look at the inactives since mafia tends to have one active + one inactive (not sure though? I heard it's a thing but the mafia could very well be 2 actives.) I guess that paints me as a suspect but..I really think there's not much evidence against me besides that vote for alca which I've already told my excuse for. If there's anything you'd like to hear from me, tell me and I'll do my best to explain.

Luxaria

Luxaria

tl;dr, aka, how long the post should have been:
TOO LUXARIA; DIDN'T READ:



After rereading the entire thread, there are some things that stand out to me that I would like to see addressed.

For Alcasync
Questions:

For Rasei
Questions:

For Sammiya
Question:

For Alice
Question:

For everyone
Half of you are town, half of you are mafia. If you are town, I completely urge you to answer these questions as honestly and effectively as you can. We will lose if we mislynch, which may happen if we do not communicate as best we can in the remaining 11 hours.

Questions for everyone, please answer!:


My personal thoughts
As for myself, I apologize for this massive post and possibly commandeering the game. However, in closing I will provide some reads for while I sleep to fuel discussion beyond the questions above.

Of all possible mafia pairings, I am crossing out alcasync/AliceofOz as a possibility. AliceofOz placed the fourth vote on alca, and other than myself, no one moved off of her, meaning she would have been lynched. If they were mafia together, they had no way of knowing I would swap, and I also think that even if Alice were in a hurry to get to the airport, she and alca would have communication enough to say, "yeah don't do that." If that's not enough, alca more or less suggests Alice is probably mafia (maybe? see above question for her).

This means that for my reads, Alice and alca are present in the least number of possible pairings. I also am not inclined to vote for alcasync on D2 unless she does something damning, in addition to the fact that Alice reads as the most likely to be town. Since I am comfortably certain these two cannot be a pair, that means at the very least, one of Rasei and Sammiya are mafia. Whether they are mafia together or paired with alca or Alice, it does not matter at this time.

Thus, whichever of you is town, please, please do your best to make us believe you.

I will most likely be voting for one of these two before the phase ends.

alcasync

alcasync

I had a long post I was going to write but I'll answer Luxaria's questions first and then make my long post.

I already mentioned that I've been having connection issues lately, and I'm actually accessing the forum from a cafe right now! I actually had no idea throughout the last day phase that I was up for lynch. If I did, I think I would have tried to defend myself earlier on instead of letting it get to the point where it was between me and drandahl. I actually started that post 15 minutes before rollover but spent so long writing the rest of my post (because I didn't want to just jump in, vote drandahl and vanish because that doesn't help anything) that it ended up getting posted later in the phase than I'd hoped.

Also I can't really explain why Blaire and Cthuluhoop were targeted for the night kills. I do think that it is the optimal strategy for mafia to randomize their NK targets so that town can't draw reads from them, but there's also no guarantee that this is what mafia is doing and there's no way to really tell. I think though that if I were mafia, I'd realize that targeting one of the weaker players would instantly throw suspicion on the stronger players, and would actually choose a veteran who's more quiet like Sammiya for NK target.

I'm interested in why you think Alice is town?

Longer post incoming, I'm going to rank all the potential pairs (including the ones with myself in them) from most to least likely so it might take a while. ;v;

100Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN] - Page 7 Empty Re: Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN] Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:20 am

alcasync

alcasync

Pairs I think are likely! (in no particular order)

Sammiya/Rasei - Rasei voted drandahl over Sammiya, and said that she doesn't like to vote for her sister. Which is understandable, and I actually looked through her posts and I don't think she's ever voted Sammiya ever? At the same time, though. Sammiya suspects me and Luxaria and hasn't really said anything about Alice or Rasei so I think a Sammiya/Rasei mafia pair is plausible.

Sammiya/AliceofOz - For the same reason I think a Sammiya/Rasei pair is plausible, I also think Sammiya/Alice is plausible just because neither of them have really mentioned being suspicious of one another. Plus, Alice and Sammiya being mafia together would fit my suspicion of mafia splitting their votes across me and drandahl. This one is very plausible I think?

Luxaria/AliceofOz - I know Luxaria always kind of buddies AliceofOz so that's not suspicious to me by itself. I think Luxaria's reasoning for why Alice and I can't be mafia partners makes sense but I don't understand her reasoning for why she thinks Alice is town (though I asked for the reason in my last post so I'll update when you answer!) But I think this pairing is plausible.

Rasei/alcasync - Rasei's vote was really the one to save me on D1, since if she hadn't voted for drandahl it probably would have been a straight lynch on me. So um... at the risk of incriminating myself this one is actually pretty possible too. I mean, I can insist that I'm town and Rasei can insist that she's town, but I can see why from everyone else's perspective this might be a plausible pair.

Pairs I think are unlikely! (in no particular order)

Luxaria/Sammiya - Luxaria followed Sammiya's drandahl vote, but now the two of them seem to suspect one another. I don't really think this is a likely pairing because earlier in the game, Sammiya mentioned being suspicious of the way Luxaria encouraged the tie and drew attention to it in a negative way, and now Luxaria thinks Sammiya might be mafia. I think if they were mafia partners trying to distance themselves from one another they'd be more direct about it instead of just trying to throw shade.

Luxaria/Rasei - I don't necessarily think these two are a pair just based off the way the D1 votes went. The timing of their votes means that as mafia, they would have worked together to switch the lynch from a straight lynch on me to a tie between me and drandahl and this doesn't really make sense. Also Luxaria mentioned Rasei as someone she'd be willing to vote today.

Luxaria/alcasync - Luxaria switched her vote from drandahl to me, putting it at drandahl:1, alca:3, which is a little dangerous from a mafia perspective, especially after Alice voted for me making it 1:4. As we had no way of knowing that Rasei would vote for drandahl, there would have been no way to save me if Rasei hadn't voted (because Lux changing her vote and me voting for drandahl would still only bring it to 3:3). So I want to say that even if you think I might be mafia, this pairing isn't very likely.

Sammiya/alcasync - While Sammiya and I haven't outright said we suspect one another, all of our posts have kind of been doubting one another and since this is the phase that might win the game for the mafia I think if Sammiya and I were mafia together we might present a more united front. So umm, plausible, but less likely.

Rasei/AliceofOz - To be honest, I think that if these two were mafia together, I would be dead by now. Unless they're going with the RNG approach which... sounds like Rasei actually. But I think this pair is plausible but not very likely.

AliceofOz/alcasync - Lux already made a post on this but AliceofOz's vote would have sealed my fate if we were both mafia since we had no idea that Rasei and Lux would change their votes and let me save myself.[/b]


Edit: I actually forgot about Cthuluhoop's post and went back to check his pairs and I actually ended up with the same pairs! (Well plus the one for Rasei/myself that I don't actually believe is the real pair.) That makes me feel a bit more confident about my speculation. ;v;

Cthuluhoop wrote:Luxaria/ Aliceofoz
Sammiya: Rasei.
Aliceofoz:Sammiya.

101Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN] - Page 7 Empty Re: Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN] Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:33 pm

Sammiya

Sammiya
Admin

@Alice Hope the move went well! That sounds really tiring.

It makes sense for Alice to think what she does think, given that Cthuluhoop was town, and he was indeed NK'd. I suppose it's possible for you and Alice to both be mafia together, and that you could've killed him after he expressed suspicion for me in particular to set me up to be lynched.

Rasei really did save Alcasync, though, by swapping the vote to drandahl. If she and Alca are both mafia, that does bring it to a interesting light.

Although, there is the possibility of it being Alice and Rasei instead, and they're trying to frame us all.

So for question one: It would be B. Either Luxaria or Alcasync are mafia, and it was a kill to frame Cthuluhoop and myself or Alice of Oz and Rasei are mafia and it was to frame all four of us.

It was to frame me with the WIFOM assumption, I presume. But Cthuluhoop does make sense as a NK target, particularly for framing

Question 2: Nothing that comes into mind at the current moment.

Question 3:I've had a unsettling feeling for most of thise phase that Luxaria might be mafia.

Pairing possibilities: LuxariaxAlice, LuxariaxAlcasync, or AlicexRasei.

@Alca Rasei's voted for me before. In New Beginnings and Roleplay Mafia. First one, I was mafia, second one she was mafia while I was town.

https://crywolf.rpg-board.net

Luxaria

Luxaria

Just woke up. Responding to an easier question before I dig in and go through these responses a bit more. Hoping to hear from Rasei and Alice some more, too.

alcasync wrote:I'm interested in why you think Alice is town?

It's more due to the process described at the end of my post. If I have ruled alcasync/AliceofOz out as a pairing with firm conviction, then that means the two of you have one less potential mafia pairing than both Rasei and Sammiya. Thus, you two are mathematically more likely to be town, and my intention to vote on Rasei or Sammiya means I'm more confident in those two housing a mafia than alcasync and AliceofOz.

However, I've also questioned one or two things said by alcasync, and the entire situation regarding NKs adds to the suspicion (and these can also be used against me, too). Meanwhile, Alice hasn't said anything that sets off my alarms beyond the vote on alcasync, which I can understand given her real life situation, and she also explained it. This is also a bit metagame related, but her last post struck me as being a very solid post that covered all discussion in thread. Prior to her writing, I know that she had been busied from moving, just woke up, and was a bit intimidated by how much she had missed. In other threads she would reply to a few things, but this time she very concisely addressed everything.

Thus, between the two people least likely to be in a mafia pairing, AliceofOz feels more town than alcasync when everything is factored in. If we survive this phase, then I can use the mafia lynch and NK, if I survive again, to speculate more on her alignment. Do also note that in my post I said I think she is most likely to be town rather than, "I think she is town."

Also, I just remembered something I forgot to ask previously.

@ Rasei, sorry, I know I loaded you with questions already!

But earlier you stated you were surprised to see alcasync and myself both alive on D1. It's D2 and we're still both alive. What do you think about it?

alcasync

alcasync

Let me make sure I'm understanding your post! So it's not that you think Alice is town, it's that you don't really have any reason to suspect her right now, whereas you have some reason to suspect the rest of us, correct? ;v; I suppose that makes sense.

Umm of my pairs though, which are the same as Cthuluhoop's pairs, Sammiya is in two and Alice is in two. So I think I would feel most comfortable voting for one of them, but I'm also willing to vote Luxaria or Rasei if someone can provide a good reason.

I think this lynch is probably going to come down to me, Sammiya and Luxaria though, because there seems to be a very strong idea in this thread that one of the stronger players must be mafia.

Luxaria

Luxaria

Correct, my logic is that between the four of you, alcasync and AliceofOz are more likely to be town than Sammiya and Rasei. Then, between alcasync and AliceofOz, at the time of that post AliceofOz seemed more likely to be more town than alcasync. I'm in the process of analyzing your last two posts so this ranking may fluctuate. As you word it, it might be better to say "least suspicious".

I'm planning to vote Rasei or Sammiya, and I'm 100% sure at least one of them is mafia, and of those two you're only including Sammiya as a possible target. Why are you excluding Rasei? Because your last post highlights her in two pairs as well as everyone else. I suppose the reasoning might be that one of the pairings includes you as well. Is that why?

alcasync

alcasync

Luxaria wrote:I suppose the reasoning might be that one of the pairings includes you as well. Is that why?

Yes! It's because I'm obviously not going to push that Rasei and I are mafia, which means I'm really only looking at Sammiya/Rasei, Sammiya/Alice and Luxaria/Alice. ;v;

I'm not 100% convinced that these are the only possible pairs, but it's the best I have to go off of right now I think. But ummm. If I understand the thread correctly, here is what everyone is thinking?

Luxaria is willing to vote Sammiya or Rasei
Sammiya is willing to vote Luxaria or alcasync
alcasync is willing to vote Sammiya or Alice
Alice is willing to vote (Luxaria, alcasync or Sammiya?)
Rasei is willing to vote ("one of our usual theorists" = Luxaria or alcasync???)

I'm not really sure about some of these suspicions but if people aren't willing to commit to votes we do need to be clear about who we all suspect I think. Umm but going off this list which might be inaccurate then:

Luxaria = 3 possible voters
Sammiya = 3 possible voters
alcasync = 3 possible voters
Rasei = 1 possible voter
Alice = 1 possible voter

so it really does sound like it's going to be between me, Luxaria and Sammiya.

Although... now I'm curious. Why does everyone seem to believe so strongly that one of the stronger players must be mafia? Is it because of the NK targets or something else? I already posted my thoughts above but if anyone wants me to explain more then please ask me questions. ;v;

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