Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN]

I'm leaning towards drandahl being town.

If they are mafia they need a partner.

alcasync, Sammiya, Luxaria, and Rasei have all voted for them and each of those votes has put drandahl in a worse position then prior to the vote.

drandahl voted aliceofoz.

These aren't very concrete reasons but they are what is available at the moment.

Of course there's the possibility that I am partnered with them but that is up for the rest of you to analyze.

My initial vote on drandahl had some politics associated with it that I'll explain during the night phase, provided there isn't a fluke swing of votes onto myself.

@ drandahl, you might be dead via RNG vote by the time you see this, but if not... When I put you at two votes to everyone's single vote, what led you to vote for alca over everyone else?

I'm here! Sorry! ;n; I've been having a really hard time connecting to this forum. The page won't load for me sometimes. Ummm...

This is kind of a really bad situation for me to come back to, haha... ;v; On one hand, I understand why it might be good to let it go to RNG, but on the other hand, I know I'm town, so... If drandahl is town too then I'm really really sorry, but from my perspective this is between a 100% of someone whose alignment I don't know dying, and a 50% chance of someone who I'm certain is town dying, so um.

unvote, vote: drandahl

I know this looks really bad because it's last minute and all but I honestly haven't been able to get on the forum lately and I don't really know how to fix it...

Phase end, Tiki has to write rollover flavor so sit tight.

Darn it. I would have learnt more on my guesses if any other player had been lynched as my prediction was correct.

I'm leaning towards Sammiya being mafia.

Not surprised by that result (sorry for lynching you right away in back-to-back games :c), but there wasn't enough activity during the phase to really shove things in too many other directions. Not sure what to think of the Alca vote swap, but it's reasonable for her to defend herself. We can come back to it later.

@ Rasei: Earlier when alcasync and drandahl were tied at 2-2, I swapped my vote to alcasync, making it a 3-1 instead. After that, you voted for drandahl to make it a 4-2 (since AliceofOz threw in a vote onto alcasync as well). Why did you pick drandahl over other options (notably Sammiya)? I think I know why, but I want to hear you say it.

@ AliceofOz: Why did you follow my vote on alcasync earlier? I know you're traveling right now (be safe, my love <33), so answer whenever you can!.

@ alcasync: Your votes were activity probing votes. If you could go back to that phase and do a legitimate vote off of reads, which player would it be?

@ cthuluhoop: What prediction are you referring to in particular?

@ Sammiya: I didn't see much from you last phase. What are your thoughts on it?

I... actually totally forgot all about the game and had been planning to switch to No Lynch after everyone spoke/voted.

But then promptly got distracted by other things and just remembered to check the thread and... Not sure what to think of this turn of events.

/)n(\ Ahhh... I'm really sorry drandahl. I didn't want to die either though.

Ummm... I'm actually really interested in Luxaria's votes. Not suspicious, just a little confused?

Luxaria wrote:I'm assuming Tiki would randomize a lynch in the event of a tie (confirmation?). A tie might be interesting. Thoughts?

Also, everyone except Cthuluhoop has a vote on them as of this post, so my vote either goes no lynch, creates a seven-way tie, or starts a double-up.

Vote: drandahl for voting on my waifu.

Luxaria wrote:I'm hesitant to fully endorse the idea of a coordinated/planned tie just because mafia can slip in under the guise of cooperation, even more so in the event of town being the only ones on the chopping block. But I do like the increased chance of sweeping a mafia into the spotlight, which is why I brought it up in the first place. A tie due to organic voting is more interesting/beneficial than staging one, I think.

Hm, so right now we have a tie between drandahl and alcasync, and I'm one of the votes on drandahl. Other than alca, anyone I swap to just creates another soft tie. And with about 3 hours to go, I don't want to recreate the current situation just sit here and wait. Thus:

Vote: alcasync

Luxaria wrote:In the interest of maintaining a tie for the moment:

Vote: drandahl

Just... I would like to know your thought process since it seems like you wavered back and forth between wanting a tie and not wanting a tie.

Oh, ninjas.

Luxaria wrote:@ cthuluhoop: What prediction are you referring to in particular?

That drandahl was town.

Replying to ninja posts!

@Luxaria: I actually never really have reads this early in the game. Most of my D1 votes are always random/activity votes. ;v; So I don't really know what I would think of anyone on D1. I'm not really suspicious of Cthuluhoop though. I also don't really want to lynch anyone who is providing speculation (So umm, you and Cthuluhoop) because then the game is going to get really quiet. I haven't contributed much in this game so far myself but I'll try to be better about that!

As for who I think might be mafia now, give me a bit to let me look at voting timestamps (or can someone post them for me? My connection is still a bit spotty. ;v; )

Sammiya wrote:I... actually totally forgot all about the game and had been planning to switch to No Lynch after everyone spoke/voted.

Did you mean it to be an activity vote? But why vote for drandahl again? I had just voted and unvoted him for an activity vote only a little bit before your vote.

He was completely randomly picked out of people who did not currently have votes on them to avoid a bandwagon.

Yes, I anticipated needing to explain it, as well as the politics I suggested before. I'll do so now.

So, for my first post I wasn't sure where to vote since there were just a lot of random votes floating around. I believe I was also the last person to vote for anyone else, and at the time there were, iirc, six votes on six different people, with only Cthuluhoop left as the one without votes on him. This is where the politics began.

Politics:

At this time, I considered the idea of a tie, since I still hold that it's an interesting idea in that a two-person tie doubles the chance of a mafia being under scrutiny. I also wanted to see what other people thought of the idea. It was mostly an attempt to see the player atmosphere.

After that post, I later returned to the thread after I woke up and saw that drandahl had reasonably created another double-up vote as a means of protecting himself. At any rate, the phase was pretty dead at that point, and posting just to say "more votes and discussion, please" seemed like it wouldn't help at all.

So I swapped my vote to alcasync in the hope of poking the thread. At this time, I wrote up half a post in response to Cthuluhoop's musings about the outcomes for D2 if we lynched D1. The result was that I realized a staged tie would just allow mafia to slip in under the radar, whereas an organic tie (as in people just voting without coordination) might be better. I decided to omit some of the speculation because I didn't want to show mafia what I was thinking during these actions. Then, I voted for you, alca, to prevent another "soft tie" wherein I would just be doubling up on someone else and leaving us in the same situation. Putting 3 on you is a hard tie in that with a 7 player pool, someone else needs 3 or 4 votes to challenge your lynch.

I wanted to see if anyone would try and defend you. Because here's the WIFOM: Killing Blaire N0 notably leaves the two of us up, and I expected at least one of us to die. That we didn't can mean any number of things, and so I wanted to glean more of this situation. I should note that at this time, I hesitated because if you, alcasync, are town and got lynched, and then if I got killed during the night, that leaves Cthuluhoop as mostly the lone speculator in the thread, if this phase is any indication. Anything else is pretty heavily WIFOM, and there's a million ways to cut this particular cake (such as "If they're both town, why not just kill one N0 and the other N1?" which is impossible to defend from our perspective).

And so when the vote swung to being 4-2 in your favor, alca, I swapped to drandahl because even though I did not really suspect him, I wanted at least the 50/50 on you rather than the guaranteed lynch, especially if you had not said much of anything. If I had my way, in the last 3 hours everyone would have posted, some more voting would have happened, and we'd get better reads out of everyone. But, alas.

At any rate, that is what I meant by the politics of the votes, and I hope it explains my shifting votes. I'm hoping to build up more reads off of discussion during this phase and following the coming night kill (if I'm even still alive at that point). I also wonder if I'm disclosing too much of my logic, but I suppose it doesn't hurt to say at this point. I will say that while I don't suspect you because of that last minute vote, I don't not suspect you. But I think it's kind of mutual?



Also, Alice just sent me a message from the airport that she isn't able to load the thread on the free Wi-Fi there. She will try to reply once she is settled at her destination.

(Don't mind me. Just casually observing from my new home.)

Oh, EDIT: Would like to be clear that I'm not just now backreading. I've known I'm dead for hours. Just had some [wafer ghost] errands to run :\