Vanilla! It's good for you! - [MAFIA WIN]

I'm still having a lot of connection issues. I tried to write a long post with the vote timestamps but my connection timed out and I lost the post and I kind of lost the motivation to post it again. Ummm... I guess I'll summarize? ;v;

I realize no one really has any reason to believe me when I say this but given that the lynch was between two town, I'm a little more inclined to suspect the people who kind of "chose" the lynch candidates. Since early votes tend to influence the way the rest of the phase goes, it's in mafia's interest to vote early. But then I went through the votes and it turns out basically everybody in the thread including me and drandahl were involved in trying to swing the lynch towards either me or drandahl and I didn't really get any information out of it.

So um, reads!

Rasei stands out to me because she was the first to vote, and she also was the one who swung the lynch back to drandahl (and voted drandahl over Sammiya, which maybe has some significance but maybe she just didn't realize that drandahl and Sammiya were now tied), but I can never read Rasei so I'm hesitant to say I'm suspicious of her. But I would like to hear more from Rasei about why she voted the way she did!

I don't know what to think about Sammiya or AliceofOz since they've both been really quiet.

I already mentioned that I don't really want to lynch the people who are speculating but since the next phase is LYLO/MYLO anyway, umm... I suppose there's a very real chance that both Luxaria and Cthuluhoop are mafia, especially since Cthuluhoop kind of avoided getting voted besides Rasei's initial vote that she changed almost immediately (because I think mafia would avoid voting for each other so it's more likely that town will get votes on them over mafia).

Umm actually speaking of Rasei's post.

Rasei wrote:So... I'm going to start out with VOTE:Cthtuluhoop

Cthuluhoop wrote:I did not expect the mafia to kill Mr. Alice. I would have more likely expected them to kill Luxaria, alcasync, Sammiya or myself. Vote: alcasync. For letting Rasei get the first vote.

Rasei wrote:Cthulu made a good point.unvote;
vote:Lux

I don't understand the reason behind the unvote here, considering Cthuluhoop even said "I would have more likely expected them to kill Luxaria, alcasync, Sammiya or myself" implying that Cthuluhoop was still implicated by Mr. Alice's death which means there would have been no reason to switch the vote off Cthuluhoop in favor of Luxaria?

So... I suppose I do want to hear from Rasei to explain her thought process for D1. I also want to hear more from Sammiya and AliceofOz though I think AliceofOz is traveling or something?

Ummmm this isn't a summary at all. Let me paste this into a new document in case my connection fails again. ;v;

(Ah. I did time out. Good thing I saved the post...!)

Sorry for taking so long to post, but I keep getting distracted than sadden on the fate of my favorite watch. It died in a horrible way... crushed by a car.

Luxaria wrote:
@ Rasei: Earlier when alcasync and drandahl were tied at 2-2, I swapped my vote to alcasync, making it a 3-1 instead. After that, you voted for drandahl to make it a 4-2 (since AliceofOz threw in a vote onto alcasync as well). Why did you pick drandahl over other options (notably Sammiya)? I think I know why, but I want to hear you say it.

alcasync wrote:
she also was the one who swung the lynch back to drandahl (and voted drandahl over Sammiya, which maybe has some significance but maybe she just didn't realize that drandahl and Sammiya were now tied)

Just like how you don't like voting for your waifu, I don't like voting on my imōto unless there is hard evidence. The reason I didn't want Alcasync to be the only person with the most votes, is because she, along with yourself and Cthulu, is one of the most talkative theorist we have. At the time I change my vote (I was in middle of playing D&D), I didn't noticed that you changed yours, just that Alcasync had more votes.

alcasync wrote:
Rasei stands out to me because she was the first to vote

I just wanted the people to start talking. You are the one that usually starts the voting so I don't see why that makes me stand out.

alcasync wrote:
Umm actually speaking of Rasei's post.

Rasei wrote:So... I'm going to start out with VOTE:Cthtuluhoop

Cthuluhoop wrote:I did not expect the mafia to kill Mr. Alice. I would have more likely expected them to kill Luxaria, alcasync, Sammiya or myself. Vote: alcasync. For letting Rasei get the first vote.

Rasei wrote:Cthulu made a good point.unvote;
vote:Lux

I don't understand the reason behind the unvote here, considering Cthuluhoop even said "I would have more likely expected them to kill Luxaria, alcasync, Sammiya or myself" implying that Cthuluhoop was still implicated by Mr. Alice's death which means there would have been no reason to switch the vote off Cthuluhoop in favor of Luxaria?

Mostly because it was an activity vote, and I was sort of more surprise that they didn't kill off either Lux or Alcasync, whom I find to be better theorists; when Cthuluhoop pointed it out. I really didn't want to lose Alcasync on the first day because for when I started pushing towards a tie. Also with ties when we have this little people, could have us hit a mafia member instead.

In case I die during the night here are the more likely partners in a blind system.

Luxaria/ Aliceofoz
Sammiya: Rasei.
Aliceofoz:Sammiya.

I-I was going to respond to Rasei's post but then I saw it was 6 so I waited for rollover first. So umm I'm going to post this really quick first and then I'm going to address rollover!

@Rasei: Thank you for answering my questions! For the record, I wasn't suspicious of you for placing the first vote, I was just thinking that mafia would want to vote early so I was looking at the early voters. Umm it's not a sure thing though because of unlimited vote changes and time zones, so that wasn't my primary reason for calling you out. I was mostly wondering about why you voted the way you did but you explained it very clearly so...! ;v;

Okay posting this for now. I'll make another post soon!

I had a strange feeling he would be the one to go. This confirms some of my suspicions and thoughts about the NK on Blaire. Hmmm. I need to analyze the recent posts, but I want to hear from Sammiya and AliceofOz the most right now. We desperately need as much communication as we can get this phase if we're going to figure this out. Especially if the two of you are town, then that means 66% of town is quiet.

I'd vote Sammiya right now as an activity checker (and Alice after her, though Alice should be around once she wakes up), but I'm going to re-read the recent posts and see if anything jumps out at me before I place down any probing votes.

Umm...! So on Cthuluhoop being the NK target. He mentioned that he was suspicious of Sammiya at the beginning of N1, so him being killed might mean that Sammiya is mafia and mafia wanted to kill someone who might push a lynch for Sammiya on D2, or it might mean that mafia wants to frame Sammiya by killing someone who said in thread that they suspected her.

Regarding Cthuluhoop's pairs:

Cthuluhoop wrote:Luxaria/ Aliceofoz
Sammiya: Rasei.
Aliceofoz:Sammiya.

I don't know about Luxaria and AliceofOz because Luxaria and AliceofOz kind of support each other in every game regardless of alignment, so.

I imagine Sammiya/Rasei is on there because Rasei voted for drandahl (when the other option was Sammiya). I'm not quite sure where AliceofOz/Sammiya came from but I'll reread the thread to see if anything jumps out at me!

Ummm also reminder that we need to lynch mafia today because if we NL or if we lynch town we lose.

I honestly don't know what to think of all that's going on. It seems mildly likely to me that either Luxaria or Alcasync are among the mafia.

Luxaria pushing for a tie is rather odd to me. Ties rarely work out in the favor of the town and the tie last phase REALLY didn't sit right.

Then what's a better solution than going for a tie vote? I notice that in both games where I propose the idea of a tie (this and Call of the Night), the phase after there's dissenters saying, "no we shouldn't have done a tie vote, it's bad," but no one ever 1) talks it down in the previous phase or 2) suggests an alternative.

I'll be the first to admit that I've never played a vanilla game. Actually, my first game ever--New Beginnings, with three of you--was the closest I came to a vanilla game wherein there was only a doctor. Additionally, in every game since then there's usually suggestions of ties (coincidentally, I notice alcasync encourages them a lot).

As stated in my previous post, I threw out the idea of a tie just because no one was talking, and there was no speculation or suggestions or anything I could do to poke the thread other than my instigating votes onto drandahl and alcasync, as well as propose a possible course of action. The rest of my reasoning is in that post.

@ Sammiya:

So you suspect myself or alcasync of being mafia. In a scenario where alcasync is mafia, which player is her partner? In a scenario where I am mafia, which player is my partner?

For the record, I do think ties are pro-town as long as it's not MYLO or LYLO. The point of a tie is that mafia can manipulate the result, so we want to be looking for that kind of manipulation. In a situation where a mafia and a town are on the chopping block, mafia is usually more likely to vote to save their partner, and in a situation where there are two town on the chopping block I think mafia would split their votes.

So I think of the mafia, one person probably voted for me and one person probably voted for drandahl. (This is from my own perspective, of course. ;v; )

Ties tend not to go very well, and I generally don't like them since it's too easy for the mafia to slip in and nudge a town to be lynched. But it is true that there's not much to go off of in general in the beginning.

We...ll... There's several combinations of possibility.

LuxariaxAlice of Oz
LuxariaxRasei
LuxariaxAlcasync (I WILL CRY)
AlcasyncxAlize of Oz
AlcasyncxRasei

If neither of you are mafia, then it'd have to be RaseiXAlice of Oz. Which is possible.

But with it being a mislynch will cause instant death for town it's... pretty daunting to think of voting in fear of losing, but not lynching will guarantee Town's death.

I agree with alcasync's reasoning for a tie, which is why I've been receptive to the idea both in the past and operated towards it this game. I wouldn't advocate it for a phase like this one (3-2), but on D1 in a game with no investigative roles, I feel like we gain more from trying to vote between 2 to 3 people and keep them even to see if anyone slips up or does anything suspicious.

The mafia slipping in and nudging a town to be lynched won't be done in secret since we have a record of their votes, and discussion on the following days and the additional removal of players via NKs helps narrow down possible pairings. This is just my take on it, though.

We...ll... There's several combinations of possibility.

LuxariaxAlice of Oz
LuxariaxRasei
LuxariaxAlcasync (I WILL CRY)
AlcasyncxAlize of Oz
AlcasyncxRasei

That's every combination that isn't either Alice x Rasei, or yourself x anyone.

If you had to pick one player most likely to be the partner for either of us, which would it be?

I don't... really have any reads otherwise, so I honestly have no clue/no suspicions on who it could be.

Umm I'm going out to dinner so I'll be out for few hours but I'll vote after Alice gets a chance to post!