Gakuen Mafia EP04-EP08 [ENG SUB]

Okay, *cracks knuckles* I'm not done talking about Lux's post yet, so let's dive into this monster.

First of all, I'd like to say I really resent the mentality that seems to be pretty common in mafia that You can only be a strong speculator if you write 1000+ word posts. All the people in Lux's list (excluding Kotakia, who has been contributing a lot with smaller posts) are people who make long posts. She claims that this makes them the "strongest speculators". Just because you can write an essay, doesn't mean you're good at speculation. You can write a thousand word post with absolutely no content in it. In fact, that's an extremely common (and valid) mafia strategy, and I know multiple people who have used it before. Write posts so long people just skim over them and go "yeah, that's probably true". Or don't bother to read them at all so you coast along under the guise of Contributing But Not Really Saying Anything.

However, I will concede that Ez and Naut are indeed two people who have been contributing the most. Also true that they've been heavily FOSing AliceofOz. Also also true, they both read incredibly town to me. If you asked me two people I was sure were town based on their posts alone (so no claims or clears from other players), I'd say Nautilus and Ezreal. This is why it seems increddddibly scummy to me that Lux chose the both of them to vote for.

All her evidence is centered around What Ezreal and Nautilus said about Alice. The entire post reads as "These two people are the most against my waifu so one of them must be mafia please lynch them they're bad people!!". Rather than actually going "These two people seem the most like mafia to me for X Y Z reasons that aren't specifically related to my waifu." All the evidence centers around Alice. None of the evidence she's using to back up her claims has anything to do with Ez/Naut's opinions on things unrelated to Alice.

Soooo, despite her claims that "This has nothing to do with me just defending my waifu, and I hope people don't think that!!" it... has everything to do with defending your waifu????

Luxaria wrote:Who were the first two people to freak out in response and insist that they do not want us to trust Kotakia's statements? Who also made comments about the possibility of a phase end in the same phase that ended quickly and saw to a stun and kill attempt on Kotakia? By the way, Ezreal has twice now suggested that mafia would try to set up kills on themselves to clear their name. I guess when it doesn't work the first time, try again? Oh, and then, by the way, nautilus proceeded to insist that whatever Kotakia turned up, she wanted to vote AliceofOz anyway.

This is something that comes from playing lots of mafia games and being betrayed many times. You start to question every little thing that might clear someone as mafia being sneaky. I don't read it as scummy and more that they're nervous that mafia could be plotting something/exploring every possible scenario. I can think of many times before where mafia has done sneaky things almost exactly like that before, and if Kotakia hadn't already been cleared to me, I wouldn't be surprised if she was making some huge gambit (honestly, the though did cross my mind when she first broke up with me that she was making a BIG RUSE, because it would be easy for her to clear a townie as town if she was maf. I 99.9% believe she's town now because of the attempt on her last night, but I'm just saying it's something that was completely plausible)

Luxaria wrote:But, more to the point, the key thing this says to me is that ezreal and nautilus have buddied and trusted each other for literally no reason--which I'll get into--while still saying they think a strong player is mafia. nautilus voiced support of Kiyoko, and if the thread is to believe T3tsuya, then that leaves two people:

Kotakia and Luxaria.

I... really haven't gotten the impression that they've been buddy-buddy other than sharing the same opinions on Alice. And there you go again! Insinuating that the strong players are only the excessively-wordy ones. :O

Luxaria wrote:Well, they already started on Kotakia by suggesting her roleclaim is false, and if she has lost her bulletproof that would be highly convenient if mafia were able to make town believe that she wasn't worth protecting on this next night phase so they could off her.

I can understand people being skeptical of Kotakia's rolelcaim, because it is a very, very, VERY OP sounding role. Anyone who has played a lot of mafia would have a kneejerk reaction of "Okay, that can't be real." because it's an incredibly strong role. Those were only the initial reactions, too, everyone seems to be in agreement that they believe her now. Skepticism is your best friend when playing town, if you believe every claim that comes along you'll end up dead. Mitsu has found this out the hard way many times.

Luxaria wrote:Thus, I think that mafia used their miller-whatever role (whatever made the ratio state 7 mafia) on either myself or AliceofOz, but I think it is myself. I think their intent was that they would force a lynch on AliceofOz and get me to try and speak up in her defense, and then if she flipped mafia they could say, "Oh, Lux did defend her..." or if she flipped town, "It makes sense for Lux to defend an unconfirmed and very suspicious town if she is mafia and knows this town is town... and if Alice was JOAT, that is very, very useful for Lux to know how to work around." With one stroke, they take out (possibly) two town, they discredit me, they make themselves look super pro because, "Hey, we got the mafia, guys!", they reduce suspicions on themselves of mafia still having strong players, and they make town think there's one less mafia.

Wait, hold on a second here.

Thus, I think that mafia used their miller-whatever role (whatever made the ratio state 7 mafia) on either myself or AliceofOz, but I think it is myself.

Are you literally admitting to being converted by the mafia? Or saying you think Alice might have been converted and is thus mafia. Because... it's... If the ratio changed, 99% chance it doesn't mean they just framed someone to look mafia (that'd be a really weak ability if it showed up in rollover like that). It means they Converted a townie. There's seven mafia now (well... six and a half?? now that Jaiser's gone). It's not a framer role. This is like either the scummiest thing I have ever read, or you just completely misinterpreted what the change in ratio of rollover meant. I really hope it's the latter, because otherwise you just confessed to being mafia and that's ??????

Luxaria wrote: I ask town to please, please trust my track record. I think that if you view the situation from my position, you can see why I am doing this.

As I have never played with you before, I'm taking this at face value and reading it as a colossal mistake made on gut feelings and a desire to save your waifu. Tbh.

Luxaria wrote: My relationship effect is that I take my relationships seriously, and I can only have one relationship for the course of the game and may not enter into a new one if it is broken up. alcasync has stated that AliceofOz can return to me after she is done with Kotakia, though. She also confirmed that new confessions won't be auto-rejected or state that I cannot receive new confessions.

Now isn't that convenient.

Luxaria wrote:It is up to nautilus and ezreal to finally claim their roles, make a case for themselves, and convince town that they are, in fact, town.

Yes, let's force them to claim their roles so mafia know what they can do (especially since apparently Ez hinted at something important according to Kiyo and Nautilus? ?__?) and get it out in the open for the whole thread to see. That's a very town thing to do. Yes.


Aaand I couldn't muster the effort to comb through all the analysis, and I feel like what I've written so far is a sufficient counter argument for most of your post. If you're town, I think you acted extremely hasty. If you're mafia, you're guaranteed to off a strong town member. I think regardless of your alignment, you're probably going to get lynched next phase because this whole series of events is way too frolicking scummy.

zzzz This is why I never make long posts. It's exhausting and I'm too lazy.

ezreal III
nautilus II

Kiyoko vs no vote
Mr. Alice vs ezreal
Luxaria vs ezreal
nautilus vs nautilus
Kotakia vs ezreal
Tiki The Troll vs nautilus

ughh i really really don't want to vote nautilus but like. i guess if it comes down to abilities... ;__; long stretch but i'm going to pray there's a town revival role out there tbh

+a million to Cure's post. also Lux is a strong player and i can't believe she would have missed ezreal's roleclaim.

also i made a susp list to give myself some semblance of normality in this phase lmao, this isn't even really important right now i just wanted to throw it out there

Spoiler:

I have a lot of thoughts on Luxaria. On one hand, why would she claim election day if she was maf, why not just do it and stay hidden like it makes no sense for her to out herself.

On the other hand, she also claimed phase change in b&b maf when only mafia actions had gone through so phase change seemed really scummy, and she was able to convince thread she was a town phase changer anyway (which she was). She could also be going for that again, and it saves her ass if there's a role cop and they investigate her and find out she was election day all along. So it could be that she used her role in like the scummiest way possible and then wrote up a giant wall of text trying to explain it away as a town action.

I don't know.

I don't know anything anymore.

Who is maf even

I feel like mafia has to have a framer and for what it's worth, if mafia does have a framer I think it'd affect Kotakia's later investigations and it's not Cure or Tet because Kotakia didn't start heavily hinting that she was relationship cop until after those two.

Rasei enters class, then look at the chaos. She turns and walks out of the room; wondering if she was trusting the wrong person again.

Well then...Vote: Nautilus. =(

@Kotakia: I think just not announcing it in thread is better. Maf still has time to set things up no matter what since a maf will be like "Hey guys Kotakia confessed what do I do" but at least not accepting is suspicious as it stands, and town will go along with your confession so. Maybe we can give you a list of names and you can investigate from that list?

For what it's worth, my list of top suspects is: Tiki, Blaire, Aistaraina, Luxaria (who claims she can't form new relationships so...???)

I'm not sure about Alice because of the whole nautilus bus thing. I certainly trust nautilus more than Alice right now.

alca-sensei why aren't you playing? I don't know how to do scum reads anymore when you're not playing.

Loud sigh

Thinking on this.

Both Tiki and Luxaria have separately stalled the game to keep Alice alive. Whoever is mysterious bus driver also acted to keep Alice alive.

I don't know how I feel about this. This basically doesn't make sense if Alice is town because there's no way two separate players of whatever alignment would try to keep Alice alive for so long.

I'm going out to get lunch. I need a break from this thread it has consumed my entire morning.

Kiyoko wrote:Both Tiki and Luxaria have separately stalled the game to keep Alice alive. Whoever is mysterious bus driver also acted to keep Alice alive.

What I did would have still knocked out Alice. *grumbles* the only thing that saved Alice was the hidden vote.

eleni wrote:

Aistaraina wrote:If you're asking if I performed an action on N1, the answer is yes.  However, I don't think it affected anything at all since I didn't see a mention of it during rollover.

wait what does this mean :o if your action should have showed up in rollover, does that mean it didn't go through for some reason? not asking you to reveal your role though!

It's not so much that it should have shown up in rollover as it could have shown up in rollover, but didn't.  I guess it can be explained as more of a reaction than an action.

Kiyoko wrote:For what it's worth, my list of top suspects is: Tiki, Blaire, Aistaraina, Luxaria (who claims she can't form new relationships so...???)

What did I ever do to you sempai to arouse suspicion besides not invite you to go to coffee yet since you're LITERALLY DOWN THE STREET.