Red Riding Hood Mafia - TOWN WIN!

If I told you the nature of my vote as of yet and it was the usual would that not spoil the point?

Except if it is about pushing me to talk, what do you want me to talk about exactly? As I said before, I don't really have much to say beyond what's been said.

Okay so. Waiting for table at restaurant. On mobile. Let's do this. I'm hungry and tired and my reasoning ability is impaired, but eh, we'll see how this goes.

I... don't know how to take Cthulumint's vote. I don't necessarily think anyone should blindly follow it, but I don't suspect Cthulumints, really, at this point.

It's MYLO sans power role luck, so while it would make sense for mafia to aggressively push a lynch on town, it's also not a sure win if mafia does so because if maf makes themselves too obvious, we hopefully still have a vig that can take them out, unless Sammie was vig. So basically I don't think maf would take this opportunity to push a lynch.

If Cthulumints is mafia, I think this behavior is likely to get the detective to counterclaim, probably. If Cthulumints is town then there's no reason to follow his vote just yet, I think, unless he claims detective and tells everyone to follow his vote.

Edit to clarify that I don't think Cthulumints is mafia, at least at the moment.

Okay table ready, Kiyo out.

Well that was a fast kill. Reasons the Big Bad Wolf may have decide to eat on the first day:

I agree that either the woodsman killed Nautilus or Nautilus was wolf chow. If it is the woodsman, then most likely they are a newbie too.

Through I agree most likely that Cthulumints isn't mafia, I'm going to Vote: Cthulumints for now. If they explain their reasoning over why Megrid is a good person to lynch, then I will change my vote.

On one hand, using wolfnoms now causes ambiguity from the beginning what with the unknown role and all. On the other hand, wolfnoms was an unblockable kill. I'm guessing mafia thought that reducing the numbers early and causing confusion was more valuable than a guaranteed kill.

Reminder again that we only get one vote change, so you can spend your first vote on whoever but be careful changing it because after that you'll be locked into your vote.

I understand I get one vote change per a phase.

Not trying to like, patronize you or anything. Just that my last reminder basically pagebottomed and I wanted to make sure everyone saw. But yeah that wasn't directed towards you specifically, haha, just us as a thread in general

drandahl hasn't said anything yet. Where's drandahl?

Actually, I know where drandahl is, he's at a book fair or something. but I do want to hear from him.

I... okay I have been sitting on this thought for a while and I am not actually going to vote yet, but @Rasei, I'm actually very curious why you'd vote for Cthulumints if you don't think he's mafia. I understand it's kind of a pressure vote, but let's say he's AFK until rollover and doesn't actually say anything. Are you going to just leave your vote on him, or do you plan to change it by a certain time if he doesn't speak up? You say that you agree that it's not likely that he's mafia. Do you think he has less or an equal chance of being mafia than anyone else?

For the record, I am leaning sliiightly town on Cthulumints, neutral on everyone else, and reserving my judgment on Megrid until that Cthulumints/Megrid situation gets resolved, and also reserving my judgment on drandahl until he says something.

And I'm going to duck out of the forum for a while to prewrite my rollover and finish some last-minute errands as I will be dragged away for things in approximately one hour.

I change my vote:none for tonight.

I made my vote to see how people would respond. I didn't want the phase to go stagnant so to speak and I don't find repeating things that have already been said as useful as creating new discussion. I would've waited to reveal this after all players had spoken but it sounds like drandahl is busy and its already past the first half of the phase.

I'm surprised about how the possibility that the woodsman could have made the kill has been repeated considering that the most likely event is the mafia used their night kill. I'm not sure I agree with the idea that new players are more likely to use a vigilante kill right off the bat.

And this is what I get for rushing, I misread the time and think I missed rollover I'm late for very important dates

I'm gonna be a bit more brief than I really want to make, but since I'm getting tied up with something, and I'm not gonna be here before rollover, I think I'll just lock in my vote now.

vote: No Lynch

I should be fixing up rollover for my own thread but.

vote: Rasei

I thought her vote on Cthulumints, despite saying she thought Cthulumints wasn't likely to be mafia, kind of suspicious. At first I wondered if she might be doing the whole, "Don't worry I'll change this later" and then after rollover "Oops I got busy and forgot to change it" thing that mafia do sometimes to leave seed votes on players. Obviously this isn't the case, but now she's locked into a no vote with no explanation and she didn't answer any of my questions.

So all in all, I'm not  convinced she's mafia but I'm side-eyeing her a bit. Maybe she's just busy and will come in later with an explanation, after which I will unvote her if I think it's a good enough explanation, but I am more comfortable with this vote than I would be voting for other players at this point in time.

Yup, was at a book festival today. Though I suppose I could have popped in via mobile in the manner of Kiyo, I wanted to collect my thoughts since I haven't posted yet.

A quick comment first: Can we get a rule clarification on the posted faction ratio, in the event of a faction-unlabeled death? I do want to be clear that I don't see any advantage for mafia to kill one of their own unless it sets themselves up for a clear series of mis-lynches until winning, or unless they're backed up into a corner.

Now the N0 comments: I currently believe Sam to have been town for the reasons described above. I REALLY do not believe Nat to have been killed by vig, because that would be a risky move on vig's part and would also require either no nk or an unobserved nk. I'm going to ignore the level of seniority of the two killed players at this point.

Now the D1 comments:

Kotakia wrote:Hrm... is anyone good at analyzing scat?

Feces or Ella Fitzgerald, please specify.

I do believe Cthm's vote was really just to seed discussion. I'm still naturally debating whether this was a surface-level action as town or a facade as mafia, but I really don't have enough evidence to dig further.

I am also slightly confused by Rasei's behavior here; as town, I'd assume a pressure-vote would make more sense on a player you either have less info about or who you suspect. I understand it's D0 so there's very little evidence for anything though, so I'm not that concerned here.

I'm more curious as to why Cthm felt it was important to explain their vote shortly after they were in the clear. I felt it was an obvious pressure vote and didn't need explanation.

Meg: Can you explain why you chose to lock in a no-lynch from a position of no votes yet, instead of just not voting at all?

At this point, I don't have enough evidence to publicize my running suspect list. I'm going to retain my votes until morning, in case they'll be useful then.