Red Riding Hood Mafia - TOWN WIN!

Known facts:
SOMEONE IS LYING!
Sammiya status is hidden. She could be a townsperson, Detecive, or doctor.
Everyone has claimed a role.

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What everyone is claiming:
Detective - Kiyoko , Sammiya?
Vigilante- Rasei
doctor-Sammiya (?), Kotakia, drandahl
town- Megrid
town- Nautilus
town- Cthuluhoop (Maybe ?), Sammiya?

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On N0:
Sammiya was eaten. Her postion is hidden, but she was town. So she could: Townsperson, Red Riding Hood, or Grandmother.
The night kill was Nautilus, who was a townsperson.

On N1:
The night kill was Megrid, who was a townsperson.

Claims on D2:
Cthuluhoop claims to be a townsperson.
Kotakia claimed to be the doctor.
Kiyoko supported Cthuluhoop, by claiming to be the Red Riding Hood.
drandel counterclaimed he is the doctor.
With this message, I'm flat out saying I am the Vigilante.
_____________________________
Theories:
If Kiyoko and Cthuluhoop are telling the truth, then Sammiya is doctor.  In that case Kotakia is mafia and so is Drandahl. Therefore they are are hoping we don't guess they are both lying.

If Kotakia is telling the truth, then Sammiya is the detective. Kiyoko is lying about being the detective, therefore is Mafia. Cthuluhoop is a townsperson. Also Drandahl is mafia.

If Drandahl is telling the truth, then Kotakia and Kiyoko is mafia.
The reason I'm sayin if either Kotakia or Drandahl are telling the truth, then Kotakia is the other mafia is because of the fact Sammiya is either the detective or the doctor.

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The only positive town I can say at this point is Cthuluhoop and myself, through that maybe from a mind of someone that didn't get enough sleep due to a forum game. Even after I turned off the computer, I couldn't sleep. Even now, instead of taking a shower to get ready to work, I'm on the computer. See yah later.

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What we should do, is vote to lynch Drandahl. If it turns out that Drandahl is town, then it is Kotakia and Kiyoko that is mafia. (and we are up a creek without a paddle.) If Drandahl turns out to be mafia, then I will send in my kill at Kotakia. If she is really the grandmother, then she can protect herself. Then I will most likely be the one eaten, but Kotakia and Cthuluhoop can vote to lynch Kiyoko on D3.

The reason why I'm suggesting this way, is because it would be easy for to verify. I'm also guess that mafia are going to suggest that I get lynch for waiting until the last moment to make my claim so I don't get my kill.

Okay, I'd be happy to hear the rest of your speculation when you are on Kiyoko.

One of the mafia is either Kotakia or drandahl.  The second mafia member is the other, Kiyoko, or Rasei.
I've been cleared because Kiyoko and I aren't both mafia unless  two town made the same claim (which would be terrible).

I think that both drandahl and Kotakia have been relatively quiet but that could be because they are busy and there's only so much one can discuss.

The night kills so far have been Nautilus, Sammiya, and Megrid. Two of those players are referred to as veteran players and one I haven't played with before.  The choices on night 0 seem a little random to me. I was a bit surprised that the mafia chose to kill Megrid the next night but that makes sense if they were considering who was likely to be protected (which would imply that one of our claimers is indeed a doctor).  I also think there is actually a doctor because we are on lylo and if we lynch a town, the mafia win.

@Kiyoko: Did you suggest that my vote could be trying to bring out the detective because you wanted to see if anyone would follow that line of reasoning? If you are telling the truth then you already knew I was town and you knew as the detective that you wouldn't claim to a random vote like that. You also said that you were "sliiightly" leaning town on me, when if your claim is true you knew I was town.

@Rasei: You suggested earlier in the game that a new player woodsman might be eager to use their action early. You also suggested that the woodsman may have targeted Nautilus, and that you are the woodsman. Did you kill Nautilus?

drandahl or Kotakia are mafia and I do not think the other is. I think the other one is paired with Rasei or Kiyoko. Something to mention is that Kotakia's claim came right before Kiyoko claimed detective. If
Kiyoko is legitimate detective I do not think the mafia would claim before the detective because when two people claimed the same role it might have been possible for the detective to clear one of them, which means that Kotakia/Rasei are not a likely pairing.

So that leaves me with the pairings of Kiyoko/Kotakia, drandahl/Kiyoko, and drandahl/Rasei.

@drandahl: Kotakia is I think suggesting that she is doctor and can protect herself tonight (i.e. she didn't protect herself last night.)

@Rasei: I'm pretty sure today our lynch will be between Kotakia and drandahl since we know for sure one of them is lying.

@Cthulumints: I've known you were town since the beginning of D1 but I didn't want to back you too hard because I didn't want to give myself away. If you read my half-asleep post where I list out my thoughts on everyone, you're basically the only person I listed as "leaning town" and that was kind of my attempt at trying to hint that I knew you were actually town without actually saying I knew you were actually town. Figured that'd be enough for people to know I investigated you if I happened to die and everyone looked back at my posts for investigation hints. The whole speculating on if you were mafia trying to bring out the detective thing was misdirection. Sorry if this is an overly paranoid playstyle or anything, I'm used to dying REALLY EARLY and I knew that if anyone suspected me of being investigative I'd be dead, well, as early as I am used to I suppose.

But part of my holding off on responding to your reaction vote was to see what everyone else's reactions would be, and wanting to keep the possibility open that you were detective, in case Megrid was mafia (in which case I'd have expected her or her mafia partner to push you a bit further to try to confirm if you were detective or not.) In any case, that's part of the reasoning behind my vote for Rasei when Rasei voted you.

I do need to head to work soon so I am probably going to cut this out soon but since everyone is talking here are my maf pairing suspects with Bigby on the left:

Rasei/drandahl
Rasei/Kotakia
Kotakia/drandahl or drandahl/Kotakia (but this is the least likely to me, I'm just putting it out there because it's greater than a 0% chance)

Okay like, running out of the door as we speak so short post but Cthulumints, I'm not confident in your reasoning that Rasei/Kotakia aren't likely to be mafia together, because if they are mafia, then isn't the point that whatever I say doesn't really matter because they'd try to convince everyone I was maf fake-claiming detective anyway?

@alpaca: Could the game theoretically go on if we lynch a town today?

In response to Kiyoko, the mafia could certainly do that but then they would increase the odds of having two townies vote against them, where as if they waited there's just the one townie who knows that another player is fibbing.

Kiyoko wrote:Mr. Alice: hey can you do me a favor and compliment the alpaca for her choice in red riding hood related pics
[11:12:51 PM] Mr. Alice: I've loved them all so far ; w ;

Thank you, Mr Alice!

Cthuluhoop wrote:@alpaca: Could the game theoretically go on if we lynch a town today?

If a town is lynched then the ratio is 2:2 and it's game over.

alcasync wrote:
Grandmother | doctor | Each night, Red Riding Hood's grandmother can invite someone into her home and keep them safe from harm. Grandma can't protect herself, and she can't protect the same player twice in a row.

(some text italicized for focus)

The rules are pretty unambiguous. Placing vote: Kotakia before I forget. Will re-read the rest of your recent posts on my way to work.

Cthuluhoop wrote:In response to Kiyoko, the mafia could certainly do that but then they would increase the odds of having two townies vote against them, where as if they waited there's just the one townie who knows that another player is fibbing.

I figured it'd eventually get down to A+B vs C+D anyway. For what it's worth, I'm leaning towards Rasei/Kotakia as the mafia pair.

@ Kotakia and drandahl: Who do you think would be the fake doctors partner?

SINCE ALCA ISN'T HERE TO VOTE TALLY

I have a couple outstanding questions that I want answered but I think I'm going to vote now.

Kotakia's "bluff" is odd.
1. It says right in the rules that doctor can't target them-self so its not surprising that someone called them out on it.
2. We don't know for sure that Rasei's claim is legitimate.
3. If we vote the wrong person today it's game over.
4. Saying who you are going to protect becomes a game of wifom.
5. Making the bluff actually drew attention to the fact they can't protect them-self.
6. If we make the right vote today and Rasei is the woodsman, they would have a pretty good idea of who the last mafia is and could kill them winning the game for town without the need for protection.

vote: Kotakia .

edit: Removed a redundant word that messed with my sentence structure.

Rasei wrote:What we should do, is vote to lynch Drandahl. If it turns out that Drandahl is town, then it is Kotakia and Kiyoko that is mafia. (and we are up a creek without a paddle.) If Drandahl turns out to be mafia, then I will send in my kill at Kotakia. If she is really the grandmother, then she can protect herself. Then I will most likely be the one eaten, but Kotakia and Cthuluhoop can vote to lynch Kiyoko on D3.

Kotakia wrote:But for two, thank you for revealing my bluff so that you and your partner would kill me tonight and maybe leave Rasei alone? I know I can't protect myself but if perhaps they didn't read the roles very intently, having them think I was going to protect myself was the plan so I could potentially save our vig. And if you're so big on that now, why didn't you counter against Rasei saying for you to protect yourself tonight if she shoots you?

Just saying.

vote: Kotakia