Literary UPICK || Town Edition

Quick thought:

high seraph wrote:nautilus's, Tiki's and Entelechy's deaths never made it into the ratio.

Tiki's death did affect the ratio, though, didn't it? That's how we realized that deo hadn't sent in the night kill the night he and Five were incapacitated. alcasync pointed it out.

Also, eleni is alive. She was resurrected by Tet.

Re: Jail, again

Yeah, we can wait on her to claim it. I'm just saying that logically and given previous evidence, it is probably her jail. It's also being used like how I'd hope a town jailer would use it, too.

Also, wait.

Lucas, you received a message from Ardonye while jailed? Should that be possible while jailed?

Ardonye, why did you start using it again after you said it was worthless?

oh, right. so the actual actual real ratio is 2M:7T:1N.

And yeah I received a message, even though I was jailed!!!!!!!!!!! WEIRD DOG POWERS MAN




mariya's note wasn't rly useful or deep or anything tho, all she did was make me feel bad about fire emblem because i usually spend 2 years trying to clear each chapter like a lame loser and she apparenly only needs to retry once wow what a nERD have fun with ur conquest

(fun unfun fact: i actually did spend over an year stuck in a specially ridiculous chapter of FE6)

SO MASTER VERY POST WOW

ACTIONS N0
Sammiya was jailed. (lulu)
ՂՂԶՐՐՐՐᑞ ᒢᔟᕶᕶ ᗲ৩৩৭〰ԴԴԴձձլ (Mr. Alice)
alcasync was jailed. (MYSTERY JAILER who is 99% maf)
high seraph was stunned. (Rasei's stun)
chinomi was stunned. (Pan's stun)
eleni was targeted for a kill but it failed. (T3tsuya was original NK target, that was redirected, OR WAS HE????)

eleni acted on T3t N0, but appeared to have acted on lulu N0 according to Aeiou.
Pan received a message.
Mr. Alice/Codex Seraphinianus acted on lulu N0. Extra info on swapping shenanigans.

DAY 1 VOTE TALLY

No lynched was lynched.:

ACTIONS N1
lulu was jailed. (done by, we presume, mafia jailer)
৩Ꮱ১؏ԼԼԼԳ ⶅⷛⷛⷛᎧᏪᏪנ (Mr. Alice)
Rasei was stunned. (Pan's stun, sent a stun on Ninfia, but failed)
ezzelin was stunned. (not Rasei's stun)
Ninfia the neutral was killed. (mafia NK)

Aeiou was watching lulu N0 and N1.
Five acted on lulu N1.
alcasync acted on nautilus.

DAY 2 VOTE TALLY

nautilus the ??? was lynched.:

ACTIONS N2
eleni was jailed. (might have been lulu's jail re-directed off Ardonye)
lulu was jailed. (self-jail?, more evidence here, Ardonye was lulu's original target? THEN WHO WAS JAIL)
Five was stunned. (Pan's stun)
Aeiou was stunned. (Rasei)
lulu was targeted for a kill, but it failed. (mafia NK)
~A LOT OF GIBBERISH~ (Mr. Alice)
Tiki the Troll single-handedly fought off all the mafia and protected the town. (obviously Tiki)

eleni targeted Ardonye last night.
ezzelin received a message
Lucas touched the ~HOUSE~

DAY 3 VOTE TALLY

Mr. Alice the town was lynched.:

ACTIONS N3
Tiki the Troll was jailed.
Rasei was stunned. (Pan's stun)
Aeiou the town was killed. (mafia NK)

nautilus left a long ass message on rollover.

DAY 4 VOTE TALLY

No one was lynched.:

ACTIONS N4
~TIMELINE SPLIT~ - 12:22

N4(A) claimed by deo
eleni was jailed. (???)
chinomi was stunned. (Rasei?)
lulu was targeted for a kill, but it failed. (mafia NK)

N4(B) THE TIMELINE THAT HAPPENED
alcasync was jailed. (???)
Mr. Gerbear was stunned. (Rasei?)
eleni was targeted for a kill, but it failed. (mafia NK, not eleni's power)
The glorious hero, Tiki the Troll is town.

lulu's ability was stolen.
T3tsuya received a message.

DAY 5 VOTE TALLY

plotstickers was targeted for a lynch, but it failed.:

THANKS OBAMA GERRY (info he got on plot)

DAY 5 INTERMISSION - 17:00
Angelstar the town was killed.

DAY 5 INTERMISSION THE ELECTRIC BOOGALOO - 08:00
plotstickers was targeted for a kill, but it failed.

ACTIONS N5
lulu was jailed.
Entelechy was stunned. (Rasei)
eleni was targeted for a kill, but it failed.
Tiki the Troll thwarted the mafia, swept T3tsuya off his feet, and the pair of them rode off into the sunset.

DAY 6 VOTE TALLY

plotstickers was targeted for a lynch, but it failed.:

ACTIONS N6
lulu the town was killed.
eleni the town was killed.

DAY 7 VOTE TALLY

plotstickers the mafia was lynched.:

DAY 7 INTERMISSION - 00:00
Sammiya the mafia was killed. (alcasync)

ACTIONS N7
Five was jailed. (mafia jailer)
Deo was stunned. (Rasei)

Tiki the Troll was killed. (mafia NK, not shown on rollover)

DAY 8 VOTE TALLY

ezzelin the mafia was lynched & plotstickers was revived:

DAY 8 INTERMISSION
eleni was revived. (T3tsuya)

ACTIONS N8
plotstickers was stunned. (Rasei)
Five the town was killed. (mafia NK)
alcasync the town died. (own ability)
lulu was revived. (alcasync)

DAY 9 VOTE TALLY

plotstickers was lynched YET AGAIN:

ACTIONS N9
T3tsuya was jailed. (lulu)
Entelechy was stunned. (Rasei)
Rasei the town was killed. (mafia NK)

DAY 10 VOTE TALLY

Entelechy was lynched:

ACTIONS N10
high seraph was jailed.
Deo the town was killed. (mafia NK)

DAY 11 VOTE TALLY
tba

OTHER USEFUL LINKS
Updated prologue hints.
Rollover hint compilation.
The Intermission.
Posts plot has eaten.
Discussion on tally.
chinomi's sunsets
TOO LUX; DIDN'T READ infodump

which chapter was that

FE6 had some shit

(sorry I am just a friendly fire emblem ghost)

Observations:

1. Mafia kills whichever player I reveal to be innocent through my role. I used my role to ask a different question tonight partly to satisfy my own curiosity, and also to make it so mafia has to pick a different target now. They could kill Lucas or chinomi, given past results, or someone new. We will see.

2. Unless anyone at all has any explanation at all through redirections or otherwise, I am inclined to believe drandahl's doctor claim. Mitsu's recent house post suggests there were two protects. I... feel fairly safe saying that Mitsu was town. I am also inclined to believe Duck was probably mafia since alignments not showing on ratio is... I just expect them to be divided between town and mafia. This assumption could be wrong. I can in part see how Duck might be town. I can't tell if all of their blundering statements were genuine or not. I do agree that it's weird that Ardonye and Duck could be on a team together, however, if Ardonye has literally all information in mega-posts, and Duck routinely misses this information.

3. I have... a weird theory that I don't want to voice just yet. But I think lulu probably has a similar idea. I do not want to elaborate. What I want to do is...

Vote: Ardonye

4. Because, fuck it, this game is just getting frustrating with the amount of things we do not know by nature of mechanics. We're getting about a page of posts per day at this point. We still do not have clear pictures of several people. One of these is Ardonye. I don't care if she's a "message sender". The entire way she responded to questions of her role just doesn't do it for me. If you're town and answered honestly, I'm really sorry. Maybe you do have the absolute shittiest role I've ever seen. But I'm more inclined to think there's something more to it. The reason for this is...

5. The hosrs, I believe, went out of their way to give roles to players that they would all enjoy. Meaning roles that fit their personality and/or playstyle. I wasn't given a question asking role with decoding for no reason. Blaire and chinomi's speech-defying roles fits their personalities, even if chinomi finds it frustrating. alcasync's role is perfect for how alca plays. Ardonye literally sends people dogs, as far as we can tell. So on and so forth. However, I can't see Ardonye's role being only sends dog messages to people. Unless the hosrs are really just fucking with all of us and she isn't allowed to know what her action does--which at this point is actually a possibility, since this game feels kind of like it's entertainment for them--I'm just inclined to think there's more she's not telling us.

And unfortunately for us she might not be around all phase to respond to this due to timezones. And I hope she is actually town and can prove it, because her posts have been useful. But...

Whatever. That's my vote.

Lastly.

6. I've been thinking about the player distribution from the Mitsu phase.

Alpha:
Five (town)
Blaire (town)
Rasei (town)
chinomi
Lucas

Beta:
Ardonye
Luxaria
deo (town)
ezzelin (mafia)
Sammiya (mafia)

Gamma:
angelstar (town)
Aeiou (town)
plotstickers (mafia)
alcasync (town)
Tiki (town)
Pan (neutral)
(wow, RIP Gamma edit: kidding, I forgot Pan, now the highlander)

Delta:
drandahl
Tetsuya
Entelechy (?)
Mr. Gerbear
lulu (town)
eleni (town)

So far we have no evidence of a mafia in Alpha or Delta. At the time there were 6 mafia. Meaning there would have to be at least 2 mafia in 2 threads, if every thread had at least 1 mafia. We cannot account for 3 of them yet. Additionally, if my results were accurate, chinomi and Lucas are both viewed as town. There may come a point where I have to abandon my town read on one of them? I do not know. It's possible chinomi is a reverse-miller and she is forbidden to speak of it, which would explain Five's results and her frustration, but not entirely why mine show her as town unless she's... one or the other depending on when you ask?? If she's reverse miller (or even if she shows as both on death), it might be possible that she was the only "mafia" in that thread (barring a situation of "et tu, Lucas?"), but then Mitsu's role begins to feel incredibly anti-town?? But it's also equally possible the hosts made no intentions of distributing mafia evenly and instead just randomized the threads.

The fact that I am voting for Ardonye also comes with it the idea that there were three mafia in my thread. My thread was the least active, but I did notice there was a weird hesitance all around to speculate and vote on people that weren't deo. Then ezzelin voted for Sammiya, but I don't think she anticipated deo and myself following up on it last minute. That said, it's not the worst town reinforcing claim for ezz later on if Sammiya had been lynched that phase. Also considering Sammiya was relatively quiet, her mafia influence might not have been as great (barring her role). I kind of wish you had checked her role, actually, Lucas. :(

Though come to think of it, mafia has in general been very quiet of the revealed players. But then again, town now is, too.

So do I think there were three mafia in my thread? This is the one thing throwing me off because I feel like I'm doing a multiple-choice test and I keep filling in the same letter answer over and over, and at this point I'm wondering if it's possible something is wrong. In the same vein, three mafia in one thread is... weird.

I still stand by my vote.

NOW THAT MY MASTERPOST HAS BEEN UPDATED here is my post post.

Tiki's death did change the ratio!

I don't see why Lucas can't receive a message if he's jailed? Jailing stops him from getting killed since it's a protect and doesn't let him perform a night action but other night actions (sending a message, align/role cop) should work fine??? IDK THAT'S JUST THE WAY JAILS WORK IN GAMES I'VE PLAYED....

And uh, I wanted to send a message? I found a very nice doge pic and wanted to share it.

SPEC TIME



Remaining players:
Luxaria
drandahl
high seraph
T3tsuya
chinomi
Mr. Gerbear
Pan - confirmed neutral
lulu
eleni
Ardonye

OKAY so. I feel like at this point we should be taking a look at who cleared who and what actions cleared who and why.

Lux -> revealed as investigative role
drandahl -> doc
high seraph -> cleared by Lux due to N4 Q, can see dead people (kind of)
T3t -> cleared by resing eleni
chinomi -> voted for Mr. Alice and thus cleared by Lux due to N4 Q
Mr. Gerbear -> confirmed that he got results on plot's role
lulu -> cleared by DYING and having a bajillion failed kills on them (rose from alca's ashes)
eleni -> cleared by DYING and having a bajillion failed kills on them (T3t's res)
Ardonye -> sends messages

OPINIONS.

lulu and eleni are personally lowest on my lynch list. When they were revived, I'm pretty sure they raised the town ratio, so I think death/resurrection has not changed their alignment. lulu is 100% clear due to alcasync being shown as town upon death and I highly doubt that alca would have shared so much as a maf member.

Following that line of logic ^ T3t is 99% clear to me as well.

dran's role puts him very low on my list of lynch targets. This role has not been counterclaimed by anyone living and I don't see dran as a mafia doctor because the mafia have had so many failed kills. 90% town.

This leaves high seraph, chinomi, Mr. Gerbear, Luxaria and yours truly.

high seraph is low on my lynch list purely based on behavior and contribution in thread. Power, however can belong to either faction.

chinomi has honestly been ??? to me purely because I STILL. DON'T UNDERSTAND THE SUNSETS????? (I'm probably just stupid)

Honestly Mr. Gerbear has come across as the most scummy to me, but also has done some pro-town things.

Luxaria hard-claimed a role, which to me, could belong to either side. Has voted on confirmed mafia (plot, Sammiya, ezzelin) consistently.

OK ONTO ME obviously I cannot be fully objective, but I've tried to be helpful in terms of spec. I have not been cleared by anyone or any actions.

Honestly

T3tsuya's mentioned a mastermind behind the scene earlier and it got me thinking. I think it's strange a player as strong as Lux has not been touched at all in terms of kill attempts, stuns or (mafia) jails. I find it strange that with a power like that, Lux apparently didn't use it N2 & N3. Therefore, I vote: Luxaria.

If there are three mafia remaining, it is imo Luxaria, Mr. Gerbear and chinomi (the people who conveniently have been cleared by Lux). If Lux rolls as town come end of phase feel free to hang me.

wow ninja'd by mega lux post I will read later

edit: fixed a typo I made

alcasync wrote:And umm! I guess to answer angelstar's question, I can only send one message to a living player. My current plan is to revive lulu tonight, and then after I die, I'll wait a few phases for angelstar to collect information and send it to me, and then I can send it to a living player that I trust is town!

I've been thinking about alcasync's last message in thread recently. Has anyone received a message from her? I'm beginning to think it might be possible we might be able to coordinate something among the dead, between Mitsu's rollover posts, angel, and alcasync. I don't know if Mitsu can consistently affect rollovers or if it's time-gated.

re: Ardonye's post.

Okay, this is interesting for reasons related to my theory. I'll explain later this phase if I have to, especially if I'm about to go down. I think I know how the lynch votes are going to come in as a result, too.

By the way, I've said in exhaustive detail why I did not use my role N2 and N3. Note that people like alca and Tiki completely believed my role and reactions to it. Note that Five's results showed my role. Note that I have showed literally everything about my results, even when they are convoluted and require a lot of interpretation. Note that I at least have a functioning role, unlike yourself.

If I roll as town, what's your next step, then? You'd go down the line lynching Gerry and chinomi? You really think Gerry is mafia? Or is that contingent upon me being mafia? Explain yourself. Who is now mafia when I flip town?

By the way, your "conveniently cleared" remark is so cheeky. So are we ignoring how I cleared Five and deo when the thread wanted to swing onto them? Oh, they turned up as town, too. Are we also ignoring that by your theory, if Gerrybear is mafia, which you're using to say I'm mafia, wouldn't it make more sense to lynch him first since as far as we know all he can do is lynch-save (depleted) and reflect non-killing actions back to their sender? So if he is town, his utility is kind of shot since by this point mafia appears to have lost their stun and jail? Whereas if I'm town, you're losing an exceptionally powerful role that has cleared multiple people and prevented mislynches on phases when we successfully lynched a mafia instead? Are you also suggesting that we not lynch chinomi, by virtue of the same logic, considering that she has requested she even be lynched out of frustration?

Where is your end-game with lynching me? How can I use my role any better to help town than I already have at this point? Yes, I didn't use it for two nights. I even commented that felt anti-town given the theoretical power of the role, but I also explained how I became overwhelmed by the role because there was a misunderstanding with the hosrs and I had no way of parsing my results, at all, under any circumstance, without that clarification. Is it scummy, then, to get completely frustrated with my role and not use it if I feel like I'm not gaining anything out of it? How come you're allowed to stop using your dog messages because you feel like there's nothing useful, whereas when I view my role as just confounding and useless, I am suddenly scummy for not using it?

Again: Explain yourself.

Edit:
P.S.

Ardonye wrote:I think it's strange a player as strong as Lux has not been touched at all in terms of kill attempts, stuns or (mafia) jails.

Look at every game I've ever played. No, seriously, actually look.

Count the number of times I receive killing effects or harmful night actions. I've maybe been stunned or jailed 2-3 times in history, if that (I'm actually struggling to remember since it so rarely happens. I am legitimately going to go count.). The only times I've been night killed have been twice in my first few games. Mafia never goes for me. This argument you're levying ignores the simple fact that no one ever thinks I'm worth killing or impeding, for whatever reason.

Five wrote:which chapter was that

FE6 had some shit

(sorry I am just a friendly fire emblem ghost)

CHAPTER 11: THE HERO OF THE FUCKING WESTERN ISLES

it took me literally 365 days to manage to not get a single fucking guest pegasus knight OR a single fucKING guest archer killed in order to recruit Tate & Klein. i'm still bitter abt it. i will be bitter about this until the day i die.

Luxaria wrote:So far we have no evidence of a mafia in Alpha or Delta. At the time there were 6 mafia. Meaning there would have to be at least 2 mafia in 2 threads, if every thread had at least 1 mafia. We cannot account for 3 of them yet. Additionally, if my results were accurate, chinomi and Lucas are both viewed as town. There may come a point where I have to abandon my town read on one of them? I do not know. It's possible chinomi is a reverse-miller and she is forbidden to speak of it, which would explain Five's results and her frustration, but not entirely why mine show her as town unless she's... one or the other depending on when you ask?? If she's reverse miller (or even if she shows as both on death), it might be possible that she was the only "mafia" in that thread (barring a situation of "et tu, Lucas?"), but then Mitsu's role begins to feel incredibly anti-town?? But it's also equally possible the hosts made no intentions of distributing mafia evenly and instead just randomized the threads.

barring a situation of "et tu, Lux?", I think you probably got chinomi's alignment wrong, and that we can finally conclude that there was at least one mafia in every thread during the house phases. chinomi for alpha, ezz & sammie for beta, plot for gamma and duck for delta. But I'm now honestly 100% completely adopting the idea that one of the town flips was a miller and that there is only 1 mafia left. Like, just imagine: what's a great way to fuck with the players even mORE at this point?

its MILLERS.

Anyway I understand it if you'd like to go with simplest possible explanation and everything, but, like you said, this game is on Chapter 21 and we still have so many mysteries to solve that I don't think they're gonna fit in just one epilogue, but it better not leave everything at a horrible cliffhanger either because i REFUSE to buy a volume 3. i refuse.

i refuse.










ok fuck. i'll buy it. maybe. if it's released in brazil.

Luxaria wrote:Also considering Sammiya was relatively quiet, her mafia influence might not have been as great (barring her role). I kind of wish you had checked her role, actually, Lucas. :(

i considered it. But at the time it felt like testing Gerry's claims about plot would be more rewarding than looking into a role that wouldn't have any further impact in the game (supposedly. u never know right). In a sense, I think it really was. I would have pressed rly hard for a Gerry lynch if I didn't investigate plot (I would also probably have failed to lynch him but that's not relevant ok. I'm a bad lynch leader, everyone knows that).

Best dog wrote:I don't see why Lucas can't receive a message if he's jailed? Jailing stops him from getting killed since it's a protect and doesn't let him perform a night action but other night actions (sending a message, align/role cop) should work fine??? IDK THAT'S JUST THE WAY JAILS WORK IN GAMES I'VE PLAYED....

OhhHHHh yeah, I assumed that the jailer would protect their target from any and all night actions targeted at them, but this does vary between games/hosts, so it's totally plausible.

also the dog pic was nice. 8/10.

Ardonye wrote:I find it strange that with a power like that, Lux apparently didn't use it N2 & N3.

u know, ok, I do agree with you that it's a little strange that Lux was never touched by anyone besides Five the whole game. But let's also consider that the mafia had been trying really hard, for several consecutive phases, to kill lulu or eleni. They even managed to do it at some point (joke's on you now tho). It's understandable that they'd try to do that, since lulu and eleni had the best potential to wreck their plans (and they did).

Now, think about how deo died last phase. Deo is like. The best kill target at this moment because, outside of the doctor/jailer employing complex reverse-psychology wifom strategies, deo was the least likely player to be protected. So it still makes sense that Lux is still being ignored by the mafia, since they moved from trying to eliminate high risk high reward targets (a category Lux definitely fits in).

so yeah, ultimately, the fact that lux hasn't been getting much love from the mafia isn't exactly ringing bells in my head.


why am i even defending lux tho.

u girls just need to hug it out and vote chinomi ok.


ninja'd by angry lux post u guys really need to hug it out ok ok ok

So I'm just looking at the info we got on rollover from THE HOUSE:

recap:

N2 nautilus says there were a total of four investigative roles that acted. You said you didn't act so I'm wondering who the four roles were. Five I would assume is one of them. lucas maybe? aeiou's role was apparantly passive, so not sure if it would count as an investigative action? Where are the other actions coming from is my question? If one of them is not from you?

If you flip town then I suppose it would be myself and people who have been defending me in thread as other possible candidates I guess. I have no idea.

My end-game with this lynch is getting answers. If you're town then we know all your results are pretty much true and people you've cleared are cleared and we're one step closer to weeding out the remaining mafia. If you're mafia, vice versa. I don't know how everyone else thinks re: my vote and I probably won't find out due to timezones

If we lynch chinomi or Gerry and they turn out town, then yes it proves you are correct. But it doesn't prove your alignment imo because mafia know who town are anyway???

I still think it's suspect as hell you're still here and haven't had anything like kill attempts on you. If Kiyoko were alive this long in a mafia game I'd question it tbh

Also jesus, this is just one vote???

NINJA'D BY LUCAS

I'm probably going to bed soon anyway those are my thoughts guess I'll see what happens when I wake up

Lucas wrote:But I'm now honestly 100% completely adopting the idea that one of the town flips was a miller and that there is only 1 mafia left. Like, just imagine: what's a great way to fuck with the players even mORE at this point?

Luxaria wrote:Excluding people obviously killed by the NK (unless someone redirected a NK onto the mafia miller, by chance), options would be... Mr. Alice, Mitsu, and... that's it, right? I didn't miss anyone? Everyone else that's been lynched has been mafia.

Mr. Alice seems to have been town. chinomi's results most likely point to her being the brightest sunset? I honestly am not in the mood to read through every book's summary to see if it matches the three descriptions. Maybe next phase.

This leaves Mitsu. But she communicated that there are three redirect roles, and she told the truth, and while we have no way of knowing...

I keep asking because it's such a crucial piece of information, and we keep hearing results that suggest redirections, but we need town to speak up if there were redirections, because otherwise it makes no sense for mafia to night kill one of their own, especially if that person was a miller. Correct me if I'm wrong on this fact. Maybe it's the craziest scheme in history if so. But otherwise, all town vigilant effects have been accounted for, I believe? Sammiya and plotsticker's attempts. All other killing effects were unclaimed mafia-leaning ones, or the night kill.

The only two non-explicitly mafia flips we've lynched were Blaire and Mitsu. I guess Duck now fits into that? Have we lynched anyone else? I don't think so.

So this means one of those three has to have been a mafia  miller-esque role, as you're claiming. Of those, only Blaire actually flipped town. Now I could actually legitimately see in hindsight that both chinomi and Blaire might have alignment confounding roles given their... weird role actions as a result of their books. chinomi cannot speak, which to me gives me this weird feeling she's reverse miller and is forbidden to just declare it to the thread, and also that given the statment/speculation I posted just a while ago... I could highly see it being the case that Blaire and chinomi are mirrors of each other and have the confusing, obscuring effects.

In the end it doesn't really matter which player, I guess, because I do agree that there's a strong likelihood we're looking at only two mafia left, maybe one.

By the way, I can also see a certain symmetry between chinomi / Blaire being miller-esque roles, and Mitsu / Duck being non-ratio impacting roles. I'm not saying I know for sure that either Blaire or chinomi have these specific effects and what to make of them, and in that case lynching chinomi might be advantageous at some point? But I feel like I am pretty sure Ardonye is mafia.

Reading Ardonye's response.

oh. wow, have blaire and mitsu been the only people who we lynched that didn't turn up mafia?

ok, well, neither of them are millers, that's something i can say with 100% sureness.


...

ok i have no idea about whats going on in this game but we should lynch chinomi.

HAaaaaaahahahaha, Lucas took the A route! You poor foolish soul!

Mariya brings up a really good point. We're already on Chapter 21 and Kiyoko is still alive.

vote: Kiyoko